講稿18/21

融資追繳其實是一項保護機制

既保護券商，也保全投資人

一旦被斷頭了

頂多賠光本金

不至於輸掉借來的錢

變得不可收拾

借房貸、信貸、公教貸款的股票投資人

把這項保護機制拿掉，

是陷自己於更大的風險之中

Margin calls are actually a protective mechanism —

protecting both the brokerage and the investor.

Once you’re forced to liquidate,

at worst you lose your principal,

but you won’t also lose the borrowed funds

or let the situation spiral out of control.

But investors who fund their stock purchases with mortgages, personal loans, or civil servant/teacher loans

have removed this safety net,

putting themselves at far greater risk.

再次突顯巴班投資方法真是厲害！

頂尖基金也難跑贏大盤！24大機構「選股」命中率逾半低於50%

就算是全球頂尖的基金經理人，似乎也沒有大家想像中那麼容易「選對股票」；而且選對股票的比例高，亦不代表最後一定能打敗大盤。

講稿13/21

大部分人不會算貴淑價

包括所謂的投資專家

所以他們只能鼓吹「定期定額、只買不賣」，

以為靠著複利效果就能躺著賺錢。

剛好這幾年趕上大多頭，

這種盲目看多的論調甚囂塵上，

顯得極其無知。

Most people can't calculate whether a stock is truly expensive or cheap—including many so-called investment experts. That's why they resort to preaching "dollar-cost averaging, buy and never sell," believing that compounding alone will guarantee effortless profits. With the recent bull market, this blind optimism has grown louder, exposing just how misguided it really is.

股票貴了表示預期報酬率轉負

抱再久也無複利效果。

若不幸又碰到長期空頭

將被套牢到懷疑人生

台股從12,682崩盤到2,485

反彈到6,365之後進入漫長空頭

再次跌回3,098

直到2020年才爬上1萬2千點，

整整失落了30年

去定期定額看看？

When a stock becomes overly expensive, its expected return turns negative. No matter how long you hold it, there is zero compounding effect.

If you happen to get hit by a prolonged bear market, you’ll be trapped in losses so deep you’ll start questioning your life choices. Take the Taiwan stock market, for example: after crashing from 12,682 to 2,485, it bounced back to 6,365 only to enter a grueling, long-term secular bear market, eventually sinking back down to 3,098. It took until 2020 for it to finally climb back to 12,000—a lost 30 years in total. Go ahead and try dollar-cost averaging through that.