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大部分人不會算貴淑價
包括所謂的投資專家
所以他們只能鼓吹「定期定額、只買不賣」，
以為靠著複利效果就能躺著賺錢。
剛好這幾年趕上大多頭，
這種盲目看多的論調甚囂塵上，
顯得極其無知。
Most people can't calculate whether a stock is truly expensive or cheap—including many so-called investment experts. That's why they resort to preaching "dollar-cost averaging, buy and never sell," believing that compounding alone will guarantee effortless profits. With the recent bull market, this blind optimism has grown louder, exposing just how misguided it really is.
他們連貴的股票也在定期定額買，
貴了表示預期報酬率轉負
抱再久也無複利效果，
而是負利效果。
They’re even dollar-cost averaging into stocks that have become overpriced. When a stock becomes too expensive, its expected return turns negative. No matter how long you hold it, there is no compounding effect— only the compounding of losses.
若不幸又碰到長期空頭
將被套牢到懷疑人生
台股從1990年12,682崩盤到2,485
反彈到6,365之後進入漫長空頭
再次跌回3,098
直到2020年才爬上1萬2千點，
整整失落了30年
定期定額只會讓人接到手軟，甚至不支倒地。
If you happen to get hit by a prolonged bear market, you’ll be trapped in losses so deep you’ll start questioning your life choices. Take the Taiwan stock market, for example: after crashing from 12,682 in 1990 to 2,485, it bounced back to 6,365 only to enter a grueling, long-term secular bear market, eventually sinking back down to 3,098. It took until 2020 for it to finally climb back to 12,000—a lost 30 years in total. Dollar-cost averaging will only keep investors catching falling knives until their hands are too weak to hold on— or even leave them unable to get back on their feet.