巴菲特班, 洪瑞泰, 盈再表, 討論串, 價值投資, 金融, 投資, 理財, ETF

mikeon88

還有一種地雷股也是無法事先從財報看出來，
即債務不能展延。

There is another type of landmine stock that cannot be identified in advance from financial reports, which means that the debt cannot be extended.

SDRL 挪威海上鑽油公司，
2018年因大股東不願再背龐大負債而倒閉

SDRL is a Norwegian offshore drilling company that went bankrupt in 2018 because its major shareholders were unwilling to take on significant debts.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 S2W1dnZ

GNC 營養藥品商，
2018年因跟銀行談判債務展延不順而倒閉

GNC is a retailer of nutritional supplements that went bankrupt in 2018 due to the failure of debt extension negotiations with banks.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 NJqBOsx

這兩家公司過去獲利都很不錯，
自由現金流量也都是正數，速動比率也正常，
卻因負債不能展延而倒閉或面臨重大危機，
這也是從財報無法事先看出來的。

Despite having made substantial profits in the past, with positive free cash flow and a normal quick ratio, these two companies went bankrupt because their debts could not be extended. This was not apparent in advance from their financial reports.

財務分析的前題是假定債務可以展延，
否則不必分析，9成的公司都會倒閉，
除非是現金大於負債的公司，這種公司不多。

The premise of financial analysis is the assumption that a company's debt can be extended. Without this assumption, there would be little need for analysis, as 90% of companies would likely go bankrupt. There are only a few companies with more cash than debt.

根據我會計師的意見，
負債不能展延的案例很少見，
因為其實銀行更怕公司倒閉，
變成呆帳，銀行將成最直接受害者，
多半會讓公司展延，
搞到無法展延一定有不為外界所知的理由，
只有銀行和公司知道。

According to my accountant Wu, there are very few cases where debts cannot be extended because banks are more afraid of company failures. If debts turn into bad debts, banks become the most direct victims. In most cases, debt can be extended. When it cannot be extended, there must be reasons unknown to the public, which only banks and companies are aware of.

mikeon88

CLLN.UK 工程承攬公司
2018年因承攬了許多賠錢的工程而倒閉
最近3年2014-16自由現金流量為正
自殺式的賠本搶單盈再表看不出來

CLLN.UK, an engineering contracting company, closed down in 2018 after incurring losses on several projects. Despite generating positive free cash flow from 2014 to 2016, the company's financial situation deteriorated. It is difficult to detect the impact of suicide bidding on financial reports.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 H3dAMYd

凱羿-KY，貿易公司
因醫療手套以及輕質循環油採購內控疏失，未對供應商進行評鑑，在用印之後才簽約等重大缺失，導致可能得認列10億違約金。
自2020年11月30日起打入全額交割股。
既非作假帳，亦不是掏空，盈再表當然看不出來

Kayee (2939.TW) is a trading company that may face NT$1 billion in liquidated damages due to internal control negligence in the procurement of medical gloves and lightweight circulating oil, failure to evaluate suppliers, and major deficiencies such as signing contracts after stamping. The stock has been downgraded to full delivery shares since November 30, 2020. While it is not related to false accounts or embezzlement of public funds, it cannot be detected from On's table.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 Qj6RquF

mikeon88

講稿 10/21 他們通通是錯的
Lecture 10/21 They are all wrong

上到這裡同學可能會突然想起來，
財務分析這門課蠻重要的，
從開始到現在都是根據財務報表在選股。
同學問有無必要再去看一些會計方面的書？
建議同學上完課之後不要把講義扔掉，
用精裝本裱起來，燙金字，三不五時拿出來翻個兩頁，
等到把講義看到滾瓜爛熟之後再決定要不要去看其他的書。

Our current lecture may remind you that financial analysis is very important. From the outset, we have been selecting stocks based on financial statements. Some students have asked if it is necessary to read accounting books. My suggestion is that after completing the course, students should not discard their handouts. Instead, they can have them bound in hardcover, embossed with gold lettering, and read a few pages periodically. Once they have thoroughly studied the handouts, they can then decide whether to explore other accounting books.

早年我也喜歡看各家投資的書，彼得林區、索羅斯都看過，
可是當我把巴菲特的道理想通之後就不再看那些書了，
因為那些投資大師的理論或多或少都還有一些問題，
唯一挑不太出毛病只有巴菲特。

During my early years, I used to read various investment books by authors such as Peter Lynch and Soros. However, once I comprehended Buffett's principles, I stopped reading those books. This is because the investment theories of those experts are somewhat flawed, whereas Buffett's ideas are the only exception.

有人以為我能夠把整個道理想通是因為博覽群書？
其實不是，而是從最基本的東西開始懷疑起。
我懷疑選股為何要看EPS，
打從當分析師的第一天即被告知要估EPS，
對我而言是天經地義的事，可是就懷疑，
因為看EPS必然會去追成長股，
可是我實際開公司卻不是這樣，
晉昂投顧獲利沒每年成長，可是都很賺錢，
所以不認為選股要看EPS。

Some people believe that my understanding of investment theory is a result of reading numerous books. However, that is not the case. I gained my understanding by grasping the fundamental concepts. For instance, I question why EPS is a critical factor for stock picking. While I was taught to estimate EPS from the first day of being an analyst, I have my doubts. Relying solely on EPS could lead to a focus on growth stocks, which is not always the case in actual company operations. In my own company, profits do not necessarily grow every year, yet it remains highly profitable. Therefore, I do not believe that stock selection should solely depend on EPS.

一度認為看ROA，後來確認該看ROE，
當知道選股看ROE時再去看波克夏年報就豁然開朗，
2003年發明出盈再率之後巴菲特理論則完全想通。

I used to think that ROA was the key factor for stock selection, but I later realized that ROE was more important. After discovering the significance of ROE in selecting stocks, I read Berkshire Hathaway's annual report and had a sudden realization. It was only after I developed the PR% indicator in 2003 that I fully grasped Buffett's investment theory.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 DOdN5vQ

把基本的東西想清楚最重要，因為一通百通，
後來同學拿杜邦公式、自由現金流量來問我，
這些東西原本跟我不熟，
可是一看即知道通通是錯的，一一指出錯在哪裡，
我未翻書也沒請教他人，就知道那些是錯的。

Once you understand the fundamentals, you can understand everything else clearly. Later on, my students asked me questions about DuPont's formula and free cash flow, which were not familiar to me. However, I was able to identify the errors at a glance and pointed them out one by one without the need to consult books or other sources.

在思考的過程中，有關會計方面的問題，
向好友吳朝同會計師和蔣榮霖先生請教也至為關鍵，
買回庫藏股買到淨值為負即承蒙吳大會計師的指點。
會計是極其專業的學科，務必就教於專家，
而不要像那些沒修過會計的人胡亂想像。

During my investment analysis, I find it valuable to consult with my trusted accountant friends, Chaotong Wu and Ronglin Jiang. From Accountant Wu, I learned about the concept that buying back treasury stocks could result in negative net asset value. As accounting is a highly technical subject, it is crucial to learn from experts like them. It's unwise to have wild imaginations about accounting without proper study and guidance.

mikeon88

同學看別人的書有問題請直接去問作者，而不要來問我。
同學就是討厭，喜歡看別人的書又拿來問我，
因本班最開放，在討論區丟個問題出來，我就跳出來回答。
巴班討論區同學可自行出題提問，
篇幅不限，愛怎麼長篇大論、貼圖都歡迎，
不像別的投資社群用臉書(FB)，
只能按讚，不能自行出題，篇幅也小。

If you have any questions about other books, please reach out to the author directly instead of asking me. I don't appreciate when students ask me about content from other sources. This course is very open, and you are welcome to ask questions in the discussion forum. I will jump in to answer them. There is no limit to the length of your posts or the number of pictures you can use. This is different from other investment clubs that use Facebook as their forum. On Facebook, you can only "like" a post, but you can't ask new questions, and there is very limited space for discussion.

同學拿東西來問我，告訴他這個錯了，那個錯了，
同學聽不懂反過來誣指我太固執，
只認為自己對，別人都錯，說本班是一言堂。
實在無言！
不許我表示自己的意見，
還抹黑本班沒言論自由。

A dozen students came to me with a question, and I pointed out some of their mistakes. However, when they didn't understand, they wrongly accused me of being stubborn and only valuing my own ideas while disregarding others. They even went so far as to claim that our class was a one-man dictatorship. This left me speechless! Some students even prevented me from expressing my opinions and tarnished the class's reputation by falsely claiming a lack of freedom of speech.

這些都是過去同學看了別人的書來問我的題目：

杜邦公式、現金轉換循環 (註1)、自由現金流量、技術分析、景氣對策訊號燈、現金殖利率、股債蹺蹺板、covered call、naked put (註2)、ROA，

通通都是錯的。

These are some of the questions that students asked me after reading other books: DuPont formula, cash conversion cycle (Note 1), free cash flow, technical analysis, prosperity countermeasure signal light, cash yield, stock and debt seesaw, covered call, naked put (Note 2), and ROA. However, they are all incorrect. 巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 SHmoExB 註1：

現金轉換循環 (Cash Conversion Cycle，CCC)

= 銷貨天數 + 應收帳款收現天數 – 應付帳款付款天數

天數越短的公司，表示其營運效率越高。

這是一個無用的指標：

1. 作假帳的公司CCC反而會下降

作假帳的公司，把貨出到人頭公司，卻沒錢收回來

CCC = 把貨賣出去的天數下降 + 把錢收進來的天數上升 - 付錢給上游的天數上升 = 下降

2. 博達正是一家CCC下降的公司

它的存貨下降、應收也降，現金增加，卻都是假的

3. 不知循環天數長到多少才會出事 ?

4. 不給客戶賒帳，常常是做不到生意的

Note 1:

Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC)

= Days Inventory Outstanding + Days Sales Outstanding – Days Payable Outstanding

In theory, the shorter the cycle, the higher a company’s operating efficiency.

In practice, the CCC can be a misleading or even useless indicator:

1. For companies manipulating their books, the CCC may actually improve. They record shipments to shell companies without ever collecting the cash.

CCC = Fewer days to “sell” goods ↓ + Longer days to collect cash ↑ – Longer days to pay suppliers ↑ = Net decrease.

2. Procomp (2398) was a classic example. Its inventory declined, receivables fell, and cash balances rose — but all of it was fabricated.

3. No one can predict at what point an extended cycle will trigger a collapse.

4. Extending credit is often unavoidable. In many industries, especially electronics, refusing to grant credit terms means losing business altogether.

註2：

選擇權策略

covered call ：持有現股+賣出call

naked put ：想買股票的同時賣出put

這兩者在實用上有很大問題

一是covered call 用於回檔或橫盤；

naked put 用於上漲，

可是如何知道股價接下來會回檔或上漲 ?

二會因小失大

covered call：持有現股+賣出call。

1,300元的宏達電貴了理應賣掉，

卻因這個賣出call而不敢賣，以免call被執行時無股票可給，從此股價江河日下，一去不復還。

因貪圖1元權利金，痛失賣股良機。

若是仍然便宜的好股票，未來仍有可觀的上漲空間，為多賺一點點權利金，而冒著被迫提早賣掉現股的危險。

naked put：想買股票的同時賣出put。中碳跌到便宜價80元，賣出put，80元的中碳是難得買點，卻因賣出put而不敢買，以免put被執行時沒錢可買，從此中碳股價一路上漲，因貪圖1元權利金，失去賺好幾倍的機會。

Note2:

Option Strategies

Covered Call: Hold the stock + sell a call

Naked Put: Intend to buy the stock while selling a put

Both strategies face serious practical challenges:

1. Uncertainty about market direction.

A covered call is best suited for a pullback or sideways market.

A naked put works better in a rising market.

But in reality, no one can predict with confidence whether the stock will pull back or rally.

2. Small gains, big risks

Covered Call: HTC(2498) at NT$1,300 was clearly overpriced and should have been sold. Yet the investor, having written calls, hesitated to sell the shares for fear of being unable to deliver if assigned. The stock then collapsed and never recovered. For the sake of just NT$1 in premium, they missed the chance to exit at the peak.

Even with undervalued, high-quality stocks, selling calls for a small premium carries the risk of being forced to sell too early, sacrificing significant future upside.

Naked Put: China Steel Chemical Co.(1723) fell to NT$80, a rare bargain price. Selling a put at that level looked appealing. But since NT$80 was itself a great entry point, the investor held back, worried about lacking the cash to cover assignment. The stock then went on a strong rally. Once again, chasing a NT$1 premium cost them the opportunity to earn many times that amount.

我告訴同學是錯的，是我在教他，
同學聽不懂反過來批我，實在夠衰。
我們小時候是老師罵學生，
現在好不容易當了老師，竟成學生在霸凌老師，
這年......頭都變了！

I informed the student that all of their questions were incorrect, as I was trying to teach them. However, instead of understanding, the student verbally attacked me. It is ironic that when I was a student, teachers would scold us for our mistakes, but now that I have become a teacher, I am being bullied by my students. This year has been quite topsy-turvy!

何以致此呢？
因為投資的觀念被污染之後就拉不回來了。
投資誰最好教？
離投資越遠的人越好教。
完全一竅不通和學歷最低的人最好教，
我叫他買什麼就買什麼，賣什麼即賣什麼，績效會最好。
什麼人最難教？
越自為以聰明專業的人越學不會巴菲特。

Why is this the case? It's because the concept of investment cannot be unlearned once it's been contaminated. Who makes the best investment students? The further away they are from the world of investment, the better. Those who are the least knowledgeable and have the lowest academic qualifications are the best candidates because they will simply follow my teachings, leading to the best investment performance. Who are the most challenging to teach? Those who believe they are smart and already knowledgeable about investing are the least likely to learn the ways of Buffett.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 EQ3LMr3

mikeon88

再強調一次，把講稿唸熟就足以應付股市的各種狀況，
股市不會考課外題，全部從講稿出題。
同學應該會發現在討論區回答問題
我常常不用打很多字，多半在剪貼而已。
這個問題一看以前回答過了就貼出來，
那個問題也回答過再貼出來。
難怪有同學罵我，跟我講話跟鬼打牆一樣。
鬼打牆才是正確的啊！
表示我的理論經得起考驗、顛撲不破，
不管怎樣問答案都是一致。

To reiterate, thoroughly familiarizing oneself with the speech is sufficient to handle various situations in the stock market. Exam questions will only cover lecture content and nothing else. Students may notice that I often use cut and paste in discussion forums instead of typing lengthy replies. If a question has been answered before, I will immediately post the answer. It is not surprising that some students criticize me for "talking to a wall." However, repeating concepts is necessary to reinforce them and aid in better retention. In fact, talking to a wall is the right approach because it demonstrates that my theory can withstand scrutiny and is not easily dismantled. Regardless of the question, the answer remains the same.

同學有問題時請直接到討論區來，
我三兩句話就可以打發掉，
而不要幾個同學私底下Line來Line去，
Facebook來Facebook去，
不懂的在問不懂的有什麼好問的呢！

If you have any questions, please come directly to the discussion forum where I can quickly solve them with just a few words. Instead of communicating privately on Line or Facebook, which may involve several students, it's best to seek help in the forum. Asking questions to someone who also does not know the answer is not helpful.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 JlxYsAK

講這麼多同學還是問還有沒有一些更高階
更advanced的東西可以看？
若要更advanced請把講稿拿出來再唸一遍就是advanced。

Despite all that has been discussed, some students are still asking whether there are more advanced courses or content available. If you are looking for more advanced material, I suggest revisiting the lecture text and thoroughly familiarizing yourself with the content again. The lecture content is already advanced.

mikeon88

真的不需要再看財務分析的書，
唸那些書會發現財務指標有上百個，但多半沒有用。
何以如此斷言？很簡單，
來回想一下我們在看財報到底想要知道什麼東西？
不外乎底下3點而已：
第一、看家公司的獲利能力好不好？
第二、看現金周轉會不會出問題？
第三、看作假帳或掏空？

You no longer need to read financial analysis books. Most of the financial indicators presented in these books are useless. I make this assertion based on a simple fact: when reading financial reports, the only things you need to know boil down to three key points:
1. Is the company profitable?
2. Is there a potential issue with cash flow?
3. Is there a risk of accounting fraud or embezzlement?

第一、看公司的獲利能力好不好？
看EPS、ROA、ROIC、毛利率…
都不如看ROE。

To evaluate the company's profitability, you should look at metrics such as EPS, ROA, ROIC, and gross margin. However, it is even better to focus on the ROE.

同學問選股要不要看毛利率、營業利潤率、稅後淨利率？
他們以為利潤率高的公司獲利會比較好。
不用，選股不必看利潤率，
因為高毛利不等於高獲利。
威盛毛利28%是虧損累累的公司，
鴻海毛利率只有6％卻賺大錢。
毛利率跟行業別有關，
鴻海做代工毛利率不可能高得起來，
毛利率雖然低，可是量很大依舊賺很多錢。
鴻海的毛利率若高量又大，就不叫鴻海了，
改叫蘋果啦。

Students asked whether it's advisable to choose stocks based on gross margin, operating margin, and net margin, as they believe that companies with high profit margins will yield better profits. However, this is not always the case since a high profit margin does not necessarily translate to high profits. For instance, VIA has a high gross profit margin of 28%, but it suffers significant losses. On the other hand, Hon Hai has a low gross profit margin of only 6%, but it generates substantial profits. It's worth noting that the gross margin is industry-specific, and Hon Hai's OEM gross profit rate cannot be high. If Hon Hai had a high gross profit margin and made significant profits, it would not be called Hon Hai, but rather, Apple.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 Ii3tPSu

有人說毛利率的比較，非不同行業別的比較，
而是公司本身自己比較。
就自己來跟自己比，鴻海1991年剛上市時在做連接器，
毛利率高達25%，卻只賺一點點錢。
後來做代工毛利逐年下降到只有6％，可是錢越賺越多。
宏達電也是，當年公司宣示要展開機海戰略，
不惜犧牲毛利率來搶佔市場時毛利率也逐季下降，
可是手機越賣越好，ROE一路攀高，
股價從300元漲到1,300元。
毛利率下降有何關係呢！選股不用看毛利率。

Some people argue that comparing gross margins is not about comparing different industries, but rather comparing the company's performance against itself. For instance, Hon Hai had a high gross margin of 25% when it went public in 1991 from producing connectors but only earned a small profit. Later, its gross margin decreased to 6% per year from OEM, yet it made more money. Similarly, HTC sacrificed its gross margin to seize the market when it launched its machine-sea strategy, leading to a decline in gross margin each quarter, but with an increasing ROE due to rising mobile phone sales, its stock price rose from NT$300 to NT$1,300. Therefore, the decline in gross margin is irrelevant when selecting stocks.

有個同學堅持選股一定是要看毛利率，不看不行，
問他會不會因為毛利率下降而把股票賣掉？
又答不會。
既然不會為什麼要看呢！
同學老是在跟我爭辯一些自己也不遵守的原則。
請同學要來辯論之前請先把自己的原則執行5遍以上，
無窒礙難行之處了再來討論。

I had a student who insisted that stock selection must be based on gross margin. When I asked him if he would sell stocks because of a decline in gross profit margin, he answered no. So why bother watching it then? It seems that students often argue with me about principles that they themselves do not follow. Before engaging in a debate, it is important to implement your principles consistently at least five times.

mikeon88

第二、看一家公司的現金周轉不靈？
看現金流量表、利息保障倍數、流動比率、負債比...
都不如看盈再率有效。

Secondly, evaluate if the company has sufficient cash flow. This can be done by checking the cash flow statement, interest cover ratio, current ratio, debt ratio, among other factors. However, it is more effective to look at the PR% when assessing cash flow.

同學問為何我們不看負債比？
巴六點提到高ROE，低負債，
巴爺爺都這樣主張，為何我們不看？
他們認為負債比高的公司就不好。
也有人說銀行的負債特別大，
銀行的資產大部分是客戶的存款，屬於負債，
銀行的負債比高達90%，
他們就以為銀行股要改看ROA，淨利÷資產。
這些通通都是錯的！

The students asked why we don't consider the debt ratio. Buffett's six criteria mention high ROE and low debt, and Mr. Buffett advocates for this, so why don't we pay attention to it? They believe that companies with high debt ratios are risky. Some people argue that banks have particularly high debt because most of their assets are customer deposits, which are liabilities. The debt ratio of banks can reach up to 90%. They also suggest that the indicator for monitoring bank stocks should be changed to ROA, which is net profit divided by assets. However, all of these ideas are incorrect.

1. 公司可以靠高負債來賺錢。
主機板正是靠應付和應收帳款來賺利息錢，
若進貨銷貨全付現反而賺不到錢。

超商統一超、全家負債比70%，
它們都是收現金，為何負債比反而特別高？
開給廠商的貨款卻是3個月以後的票子，
為了賺利息。

1. Companies can generate income through high levels of debt.
For instance, motherboard manufacturers can earn interest income by relying on accounts payable and accounts receivable. If they were to pay for purchases and sales in cash, they would not be able to generate this income.

Similarly, companies such as President Chain Store (2912.TW) and Taiwan FamilyMart (5903.TW) have a debt ratio of 70%. Although they receive cash, their debt ratio is high because they issue promissory notes to suppliers that are payable in 3 months in order to earn interest.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 Ef76hse

2. 負債比高的公司，風險就大？
不盡然如此，
有時候剛好相反，是業務風險低才可以高負債。
聯發科負債比22%，鴻海負債比63%，
請問誰的業務風險高？
當然是IC設計的聯發科業務風險高。
鴻海的業務風險其實很小，
它是全球最大代工廠，成本最低，
蘋果不給它做要給誰，跑不掉的。
鴻海因業務風險低，才可以高負債。

2. Do companies with high debt ratios have greater risks?
Not necessarily! In fact, the opposite can be true. Only low business risk leads to high debt. For instance, MediaTek (2454.TW) has a debt ratio of 22%, while Hon Hai (2317.TW) has a debt ratio of 63%. Whose business risk is higher? MediaTek's integrated circuit design involves high risks, while Hon Hai's business risks are actually quite low. Hon Hai is the largest foundry with the lowest cost in the world. If Apple does not place orders with Hon Hai, who else could they turn to? Apple cannot easily replace Hon Hai. Hon Hai has taken on a significant amount of debt due to their low operating risks.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 GvWwECr

3. 收現金的公司應該要高負債。
誰有資格跟銀行借錢，有錢人還是窮人？
銀行借給頂新買帝寶的房貸成數99%，因為他還得起。
為何不給我99%？因為我還不起。
有錢人才可以高負債。

Companies that receive cash often have high levels of debt.
Who is eligible to borrow money from banks - the rich or the poor? Banks lent 99% of the mortgage to Ting Hsin International to buy Dibao Mansion because they could afford it. Why wouldn't they give me 99%? Because I can't afford it. The wealthy are often able to take on high levels of debt.

超商負債比70%，西班牙電信負債比79%，
買庫藏股買到淨值為負，負債比超過100%，
都是收現金的公司，
收現金的公司若不懂得高負債，財務長失職。

President Chain Store has a debt ratio of 70%, while Telefónica's (TEF) debt ratio is 79%. The net assets of buying treasury stocks are negative, and the debt ratio exceeds 100%. All of these are cash collection companies. If a cash-receiving company does not understand the risks associated with high levels of debt, the CFO may be considered negligent.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 DT1Mgxf

我最喜歡買收現金、負債比超過100%，
杜邦公式卻說它會倒的公司。
杜邦公式把ROE拆成要看營收x毛利率x負債比，
認為負債比高就不好，實在荒謬，
殊不知收現金的公司負債比可超過100%，這其實是最好的公司。

My favorite companies to invest in are those that collect cash and have a debt ratio exceeding 100%. However, the DuPont formula predicts that these companies will fail. The formula breaks down ROE into sales x gross margin x debt ratio, but it's ridiculous to think that a high debt ratio is always bad. In fact, as many know, the debt-to-assets ratio of a cash-receiving company can exceed 100%, which actually indicates a strong company.

參閱：杜邦公式的荒謬
See: The absurdity of DuPont's formula

4. 股權也是一種負債，跟股東借錢，只是不用還而已，
不用還的錢有時候最貴。
公司到底是應該增加債權還是股權？
應該以誰的成本低而定。
不是增加負債就一定不好。

Equity represents a form of debt that can be borrowed from shareholders without the obligation of repayment.
However, sometimes the money you don't have to pay back can be the most costly. Whether a company should increase its debt or equity should depend on which option has the lower cost. It's important to note that increasing debt doesn't necessarily come without benefits.

台積電2003年股息配3元，每股淨值30元，
等於跟股東借錢的利率10%，
若跟銀行借錢只要3％，
請問台積電應該跟誰借錢？
銀行！

In 2003, TSMC's dividend was NT$3 and its net asset value was NT$30, which is equivalent to a 10% interest rate for borrowing money from shareholders. If TSMC borrows money from banks, the interest rate is only 3%. Therefore, TSMC should borrow money from the bank.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 9414iLR

舉債來提高ROE、配息、減資、買回庫藏股可不可以？
當然可以！當利率低時有何不可。

Can a company increase its debt to boost ROE, distribute dividends, reduce capital, and buy back shares? Absolutely! It's a viable option when interest rates are low.

有人把增加負債來提高ROE污名為財務操作，
這顯然是沒修過財務管理的結果，
外行人在望文生義，亂扯一通。

Some people stigmatize the use of increased debt to improve ROE as financial manipulation. This is clearly the result of not having studied financial management. Outsiders may misunderstand and make baseless claims.

mikeon88

選股為何不能看ROA？
因為ROA無法通盤比較。
台灣獲利最好的金控公司富邦金控2015年的ROA才1.2%，
電子股獲利普通的仁寶ROA都還有2.2%。

ROA may not be a dependable metric for selecting stocks due to the inability to make an apples-to-apples comparison of ROA values across different companies.
In 2015, Fubon Financial Holdings (2881.TW), the most profitable financial holding firm in Taiwan, recorded a ROA of 1.2%. Meanwhile, Compal (2024.TW), an electronics company, had a ROA of 2.2%, which falls below the industry average.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 7kukMYC

請問誰的獲利能力好？
仁寶ROE才9％，富邦金ROE16%。

Which company is more profitable?
Fubon has a ROE of 16%, while Compal's ROE stands at 9%.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 FonkMvG

同樣是金融股一樣無法比較。
中壽ROA僅0.7%，台產ROA 6%，
壽險公司再怎麼會經營ROA不可能超過產險股。

Financial stocks cannot be compared in the same way. China Life Insurance (2823.TW) has an ROA of only 0.7%, while Taiwan Fire and Marine Insurance (2332.TW) have an ROA of 6%. No matter how well life insurance companies are managed, their ROA cannot surpass that of property and casualty insurance stocks.

金融業負債比高達9成，稍有閃失即可能破產，
在放款和投資上對於保本的要求特別高導致報酬率高不起來，ROA有1%就很好了。
製造業需負擔至少5%貸款利息，報酬率若無10%以上斷不會投入。
總之，ROA跟產業別有關，製造業遠高於金融業，產險高於壽險。
即便是金融股選股是看ROE，而非ROA。

The financial industry faces a significant challenge with a debt-to-assets ratio as high as 90%, making even minor setbacks potentially leading to bankruptcy. The stringent requirement for capital preservation in lending and investments hampers the ability to achieve high returns. In this context, a 1% ROA is considered satisfactory.
Conversely, the manufacturing industry must bear a minimum loan interest burden of 5%, and investments are only pursued if the return exceeds 10%. Essentially, the ROA varies across industries. The manufacturing industry typically exhibits a significantly higher ROA when compared to the financial industry. Furthermore, property and casualty insurance generally surpasses life insurance in terms of ROA performance.

選股也非看ROIC，淨利/(淨值+長債)
因ROIC在評估總經理的績效，
我們是股東，在意的是我們的錢的績效，ROE。

Stock selection should not be based solely on ROIC, which is a metric used to assess the performance of CEOs. As shareholders, our primary concern is how our investment is performing, and therefore, we should focus on ROE, i.e., net profit divided by total equity. ROE is a more relevant measure of a company's profitability from a shareholder's perspective.

mikeon88

5. 盈再表不看負債，同學問若公司大量舉債致無法負擔，
能否事先看出來 ?

5. The student asked whether we could determine in advance if a company has taken on too much debt, given that there was no information about debt on On's table.

大量舉債看是借短債還是長債？
若大量借短債怕周轉不靈，盈再率高較易周轉不靈。
大量借長債則擔心利息負擔重，獲利下降，將無法維持高ROE。
所以從盈再率及ROE即可看出過度舉債的問題。

When a company takes on a significant amount of debt, we need to consider whether it is short-term or long-term. If a large portion of the debt is short-term, it could lead to insufficient cash flow, particularly if the PR% is high, leading to a potential cash crunch. Conversely, if a company has taken on a lot of long-term debt, we may be concerned about the heavy interest burden it may incur and the potential impact on profitability, which could result in a decline in ROE. Therefore, we can assess the issue of excessive borrowing by analyzing the PR% and ROE.

選股，即便是金融股，也是看ROE，
不用看ROA跟負債比。

When selecting stocks, including financial stocks, it is important to prioritize ROE as a key metric. ROA and debt ratio are not as critical to monitor in the selection process.

mikeon88

第三、看作假帳或掏空？
看應收周轉率、存貨周轉率、現金流量
(包括營業活動現金或自由現金流量)…
都不如看配息率息與盈再率有用。

Third, is there a risk of accounting fraud or embezzlement?
Checking the accounts receivable turnover rate, inventory turnover rate, and cash flow (including operating cash flow or free cash flow) is not as useful as monitoring the dividend payout ratio and PR%.

同學來踢館！同學看了別人的書來跟我們討教，
他說自由現金流量這個指標也可以用來檢定地雷股，
自由現金流量為負表示公司現金周轉會有問題。

After reading other books, a student challenged me and claimed that free cash flow could be utilized to verify risky stocks. He argued that if a company has negative free cash flow, it indicates that there could be issues with the company's cash flow.

什麼是自由現金流量？
現金流量表有3個活動：營業活動、投資活動、融資活動。
自由現金流量只拿前面2個活動來相加，營業活動+投資活動。
這個例子，薪水10萬元，去買了12萬元股票，
自由現金流量即10萬元－12萬元＝ -2萬元，
表示這家公司會周轉不靈。

What is free cash flow? Free cash flow is the sum of a company's operating activities and investment activities, which are reported in the cash flow statement. It excludes financing activities.
For instance, if a person earned a salary of $100,000 and invested $120,000 in stocks, the free cash flow would be calculated as $100,000 - $120,000 = -$20,000, indicating a cash shortage for the person.

自由現金流量跟盈再率是兩個非常相像的公式。
自由現金流量拿2個活動來相加，
盈再率則拿2個活動相除，投資活動÷營業活動。
同樣例子，買了12萬元股票÷薪水10萬元＝盈再率120%。

Free cash flow and PR% are two formulas that are similar in nature. However, they differ in their approach. Free cash flow is the sum of two activities, whereas PR% is the ratio of investment activities to business activities.
Using the same example, if a person invests $120,000 in stocks and earns a salary of $100,000, the PR% would be calculated as $120,000 ÷ $100,000 = 120%.

自由現金流量不足就是盈再率大於100%，
盈再率100%意指薪水10萬元去買10萬元股票，
剛剛好夠用還不會有事。

When a company has insufficient free cash flow, it means that it has negative free cash flow, which could be greater than 100% PR%. A PR% of 100% indicates that a person has invested an amount equal to their salary in stocks. It's a balanced situation where the cash flow remains unchanged.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 4IeLcO8

薪水10萬元買了20萬元股票，差距 1 倍了才可能周轉不靈，
即盈再率大於200%才會有事。
自由現金流量這個理論是錯的，錯在結論下錯，
不是小於0，要小於 -1 倍才會有事。

If an individual invests $200,000 in stocks with a salary of $100,000, and the resulting PR% is over 200%, it could lead to a cash shortage. This indicates that the conclusion of the free cash flow theory would be incorrect. In reality, free cash flow must be less than negative one times the salary to indicate a cash flow problem.

同學跟我拗「自由現金流量小於 0，不是指一年就會有事，
而是要長期才會有事。」
問他長期要多久？同學說8年。
我說「好！我們就來8年巴巴看。」
剛剛的例子，薪水10萬元去買了12萬元股票，
用資產負債表寫出來就是這樣：
資(12萬長投)=債(2萬)+值(10萬)。
每年都不足2萬元，同學說8年，我給它100年，夠長了吧，
資產負債表變成這樣：
資(1,200萬長投)=債(200萬)+值(1,000萬)，
後面各加2個零而已，負債比才17%，
公司會不會有事呢？不會吧！
即便自由現金流量100年都不足，公司一樣不會有事。

A classmate argued with me, "If free cash flow is less than zero, it doesn't mean there will be a problem in just one year, but it will take a long time." I asked him how long is long-term, and he said eight years. So I said, "Okay! Let's wait for eight years and see." In the previous example, a salary of $100,000 was used to purchase $120,000 worth of stocks. It can be represented on the balance sheet as: Assets ($120,000 in long-term investment) = Liabilities ($20,000) + Equity ($100,000). With an annual shortage of less than $20,000, my classmate said eight years, so I extended it to 100 years. The balance sheet would then look like this: Assets ($12,000,000 in long-term investment) = Liabilities ($2,000,000) + Equity ($10,000,000), with two additional zeroes added. The debt-to-equity ratio is only 17%. Would the company be in trouble? I don't think so! Even if free cash flow is insufficient for 100 years, the company should still be fine.

自由現金流量為負，只表示負債會增加。
負債增加不表示負債比會惡化，
這個例子負債從2萬元增加到200萬元，可是負債比都僅17%。

A negative free cash flow indicates an increase in liabilities, but it does not necessarily mean that the debt ratio will worsen. In the given example, although the debt increased from $20,000 to $2 million, the debt ratio was only 17%. This means that even if the free cash flow remained negative for 100 years, the company would still not face any issues.

自由現金流量長期為負的公司很多，而且都是偉大的公司，
波克夏、台積電、鴻海就是，股價已漲了上萬倍。
這3家偉大的公司主張自由現金流量的人竟然認為會倒，
實在可笑。
同學哪天有機會跟老巴吃午餐時請務必幫我問一個問題
「波克夏會不會倒？」
或者坐火車碰到張忠謀時問他「台積電會不會周轉不靈？」
小謀必定翻你白眼。

Many great companies have experienced negative free cash flow for extended periods of time, including Berkshire Hathaway, TSMC, and Hon Hai, all of which have seen their stock prices increase tens of thousands of times. It is ridiculous to think that these three great companies would fall because of negative free cash flow. If you had the chance to have lunch with Mr. Buffett, you could ask him the question, "Will Berkshire fall?" Similarly, if you ask Morris Chang on a train, "Will TSMC have cash flow problems?" He will definitely roll his eyes at you.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 8V9qMbq

相反的，TEF、GPS、TPR三家公司這幾年FCF皆正而穩定，
但股價大跌80%。

On the contrary, the three companies TEF, GPS, and TPR have all had positive and stable free cash flow in recent years. However, their stock prices have plummeted by 80%.

FCF為正股價仍可能大跌；
為負也不致負債比惡化，
顯見自由現金流量這個指標沒用。

A company can have a positive FCF, yet experience a sharp decline in its stock price. Conversely, a negative FCF may not necessarily lead to a deterioration in the company's debt ratio. Hence, the free cash flow indicator may not always be a reliable measure of a company's financial health.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 GnLTtom

這個同學又繼續拗，
同學問問題的步驟就3個：一嗆聲，二拗，三人身攻擊。
一開始只是有個想法未成熟就來嗆聲「你不對，我才對」。
被駁倒死不承認，二拗，
再被駁倒，三就人身攻擊「你不懂啦，沒有料！」

The classmate continued to argue using three steps: making a loud statement, stubbornly arguing, and attacking others personally. Initially, the classmate had an immature idea and made a loud statement, and refused to admit their mistake even when proven wrong. Then, they persisted in arguing stubbornly, and when that didn't work, they resorted to personal attacks, such as saying "You don't understand anything" or "You are ignorant!"

這位同學拗「不僅看自由現金流量，還要加看營業活動現金流量」，
加看營業活動一樣沒用！
從講稿9/21的例子來看，
雅新、SAY在出事之前的營業活動流量都是正數。
博達營業活動的應收帳款、存貨科目都可造假，
顯示仍然是無用的指標。

The student argued, "We should not only focus on free cash flow but also consider the cash flow from operating activities." However, adding operational activities is pointless. As evidenced by lecture 9/21, companies like Yahsin and SAY had positive cash flow from operating activities before their scandals were exposed. Additionally, companies like Procom can manipulate their accounts receivables and inventory accounts. Therefore, operational activities are not a reliable indicator.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 8UNSJ7t

mikeon88

以上3點都不如看ROE、配息率與盈再率，
只要高配息+低盈再率就保證財報不會有問題！
有人問我選股只按盈再表嗎？
是的，而且通常只看表頭，
表底下和右邊的表格還很少拉過來看。
怎麼可能這樣簡單？
是的，就這樣簡單，
我們有二位同學按按盈再表就移民澳洲去了。
我的方法就是簡單到令人不敢置信，
簡單找到讓你學不會！
為何簡單卻學不會？
因為你不敢置信啊！

The three aforementioned points are inferior to monitoring ROE, dividend payout ratio, and PR%. A high dividend payout and low PR% guarantee no financial report issues! When asked if I select stocks only based on On's table, I confirmed that I typically only look at the table header. I rarely refer to the tables below and to the right. It may seem too simple, but that's all there is to it. Two of our classmates immigrated to Australia after using On's table. My method is so simple that it may be hard to believe, making it easy to learn but difficult to master. Why is it easy to learn but hard to master? Because you are too skeptical!

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 QlVzDMg

為何只要高配息+低盈再率就保證財報不會有問題？
高配息等於老公每個月都把薪水交給老婆。
低盈再率表示藏私房錢的管道都被堵住了，
請問老公如何搞鬼？

Why is it that a high dividend payout ratio and low PR% guarantee that there will be no issues with the financial report? A high dividend payout ratio is equivalent to the husband giving all his wages to his wife every month. A low PR% means that the channels for hiding private funds have been blocked. How did the husband engage in fraudulent activities?

mikeon88

2012年傳出檢調去搜索漢唐，說董事長掏空3億元，
事發之後網路上一堆人放馬後砲說財報哪裡又哪裡有問題，
之前未曾聽聞他們說過財報有問題。
當時我是第一個在事發之後跳出來說漢唐被掏空但問題不嚴重，
股票不會變成壁紙。
為什麼敢如此打包票？人皆可殺還出來保證？

In 2012, it was reported that the authorities conducted a search of United Integrated Services (2404.TW), alleging that the chairman had embezzled NT$300 million. After the incident, many people on the internet criticized various aspects of the company's financial reports, but I had never heard them mention any issues prior to that. At that time, I was the first to come forward and state that although United Integrated Services had been embezzled, the problem was not severe enough to render the stock value worthless. Why was I able to make such a guarantee when everyone else was skeptical? Would I risk my reputation to come forward like this?

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 47neBwG

很簡單，漢唐盈再率僅20%，配息率90%，
怎麼可能有問題。
果然後來股價從34元跌到27元而已，我算的便宜價29元。

The PR% of United Integrated Services is only 20%, and its dividend payout ratio is as high as 90%. Therefore, it is unlikely that there would be a problem. Although the stock price dropped from NT$34 to NT$27, it is still close to the cheap price of NT$29 that I calculated.

2016年群聯也被查出作假帳，
我又第一個跳出來跟大家講問題不大！

In 2016, fraudulent accounts were discovered at Phison Electronics (8299.TW). Nonetheless, I was the first to reassure everyone that the problem was not significant.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 V7HWQPR

很簡單，盈再率15%，配息率60%。
股價也僅從事發之前270元跌到204元，便宜價230元。

Simply put, the PR% is 15% and the dividend payout ratio is 60%. Despite the stock price falling from NT$270 to NT$204, my calculated cheap price was NT$230.

mikeon88

有人分析股票喜歡洋洋灑灑列出一堆指標，
以為這樣比較專業。
在我看來，那反而是外行，表示不曉得很多指標沒用。

Some individuals analyzing stocks prefer to list out numerous indicators, thinking that it makes them appear more professional. However, in my opinion, this approach indicates a lack of expertise, as they fail to recognize that many indicators are useless.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 LBaOn9t

選股不用看毛利率、負債比大家都知道了嗎？
同學皆點頭稱是，
可是回到家裡自己分析股票，寫部落格，
又在那邊高毛利、低負債，
每次都這樣，上課都講過了，可是回到家就全部還給我。
幸好！我不用把學費還給他。
雜誌報導的投資素人，只要說他中碳幾年賺幾倍的
通通是我的學生，沒有例外，
奇怪的是，明明是我的學生可是絕口不提盈再率，
為什麼盈再率讓大家那麼難以啟齒呢？
因為它比較台嗎？
這是我教這堂課最大的挫折感！

When selecting stocks, monitoring the gross margin and debt ratio is not necessary, as I advised my students. All of them nodded in agreement. However, upon analyzing stocks and writing blogs at home, some of them focused on high gross profit and low debt. These students seemed to have ignored my previous teachings. Thankfully, I am not obligated to refund their tuition fees. In fact, I noticed that many individuals who claimed to have earned significant profits in China Steel Chemicals were actually my former students. However, it is odd that they failed to mention PR%. Perhaps, it is because PR% is not commonly discussed in Taiwan. This has been the biggest frustration in teaching this class!

我的學生去外面開課自立門戶，不承認是我的學生，
還把抄襲盈再率公式改為資本支出/營業現金流，
判斷式也是不可大於200%。
這等於把愛因斯坦的公式 e = mc^2 改成
X = YZ^2 然後說相對論是他發明的一樣，
這就是剽竊！
引用或改寫別人的觀念、公式和明牌而未註明出處者即為小偷。

One of my students, Wei, started teaching his own class outside and denied being my student. He even modified the PR% formula to "capital expenditures/operating cash flow," using the same criteria of not exceeding 200%. It's equivalent to altering Einstein's formula e = mc^2 to X = YZ^2 and claiming to have discovered relativity. This constitutes plagiarism!
Anyone who quotes or modifies someone else's ideas, formulas, or stock tips without acknowledging the source is a thief.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 X0F1fLw

mikeon88

講稿 11/21 不會變的公司
Lecture 11/22 Durable

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 TeF9XHJ

我們選股有三大條件：
第一是ROE要穩定。
第二要能配得出現金，
最近一年盈再率小於80%，
最近3年配息率大於40%。
還有第三大條件買不會變、可以好很久的公司。
投資一家公司都希望可以維持高ROE，
長期抱下來才有複利效果，賺到最大錢。
不過在買股票的當時都覺得很好，
抱個一年半載之後，卻變得越來越差，
投資人會問到底什麼樣的公司才能好很久？

We have three main criteria for stock selection:
The first is that the ROE must be stable.
The second is that the company must have the ability to distribute cash dividends, with a PR% in the most recent year that is less than 80%, and a dividend payout ratio in the last three years that is greater than 40%.
The third condition is to purchase a company that will not change and can last for a long time. Investors hope to maintain a high ROE for the company they invest in, and to benefit from compound interest over the long term to maximize profits.
However, even if a stock appears promising at the time of purchase, it can deteriorate over time. Investors may wonder what type of company can remain successful for a prolonged period.

分析師拜訪公司，公司能夠告訴我們的
頂多未來3到6個月的出貨狀況，
可是我們想要知道的不僅3到6個月，
而是3-5年之後公司會不會如現在所預料的這麼好？

When analysts visit companies, the company may provide information about shipment status for the next 3 to 6 months at most. However, what we really need to know is not just the short-term outlook, but whether the company will perform as well as we anticipate in the next 3 to 5 years.

分析師除了拜訪公司之外還會去做產業研究，
從產業裡找出哪些是未來的明星產業，
若該產業最具發展潛力，裡頭的公司應該會快速成長，
可是卻常常發現，產業前景看好
跟公司會不會賺錢其實沒有必然的關係！
過去大家曾看好太陽能、面板、DRAM這些產業
後來發展趨勢跟當時所預料的其實差不多，
當初認為電視機和電腦螢幕都將換成面板，趨勢的確如此，
可是沒想到做面板的公司沒幾家賺錢。
這一點在年報上巴菲特也提到，
祂小時候萊特兄弟駕飛機飛越大西洋，
當時大家認為飛機工業的產值將變得很大，
果然如此，可是製造飛機的公司能獲利者寥寥可數。

In addition to visiting companies, analysts also conduct industry research to identify the future star industries. If an industry has significant potential, the companies within that industry should experience rapid growth. However, I have often noticed that a bright future for an industry does not necessarily guarantee profitability for the companies within it.
In the past, industries such as solar, LCD panels, and DRAM were highly optimistic. While the industry trends aligned with expectations at the time, few companies were able to turn a profit. For instance, we believed that both TV and computer screens would be replaced by panels, which turned out to be true. Nevertheless, only a few companies could make a profit from this trend.
Mr. Buffett addressed this issue in his annual report. He mentioned how the Wright brothers flew across the Atlantic when he was a kid, and at that time, people believed that the output value of the aircraft industry would be enormous. While the industry followed the expected trend, few companies were able to achieve profitability.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 VCoYJEK

相反的那些能夠好很久的公司，
可口可樂、嬌生、中碳、大統益的產品都還蠻無聊的，
可樂的市場會不會快速成長？
不會，但可以維持高ROE。
嬌生做衛浴用品洗髮精、爽身粉會不會顯著成長？
也不會，卻能維持高ROE。
大統益做沙拉油的也不會大幅成長，一樣有高ROE。

In contrast, companies that have the potential to last a long time, such as Coca-Cola (KO), Johnson and Johnson (JNJ), China Steel Chemical, and TTET Union products, may not be as exciting.
For instance, the market for Coca-Cola may not experience significant growth, but the company can maintain a high ROE. Similarly, Johnson and Johnson's shampoo and talcum powder may not have significant growth, but the company can maintain a high ROE. TTET Union's salad oil may not experience a significant increase in demand, but the company can still maintain a high ROE.

巴菲特昭示「能夠好很久的原則排除快速變遷的產業」
(2007年報，波克夏年報最精華的一段)，
這是巴菲特改變我思想最大的地方。
我原先是外資電子股分析師，
當年問我怎麼選股？我一定會說，
從未來最有發展潛力的3C產品去挑就對了，
巴菲特告訴我這個想法是錯的！

In his 2007 annual report, the most insightful section of Berkshire Hathaway's annual reports, Mr. Buffett stated that "Our criterion of 'enduring' causes us to rule out companies in industries prone to rapid and continuous change." This idea completely changed the way I used to think.
As a former electronics analyst for a foreign securities company, I would have suggested investing in the most promising 3C (computers, communications, and consumer electronics) products. However, Mr. Buffett made me realize that this approach was flawed.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 1Wlm84G

選股的重點不在看未來會如何，
而在確定現在會不會變。

The key to stock selection lies not in predicting the future, but in determining whether the current dominance will change.

mikeon88

何謂不會變的公司？
1. 產品不會變
2. 產業地位不會變 (A咖、龍頭股)
3. 想3秒鐘就了解的公司

What is a durable company?
1. Products that are irreplaceable
2. An unshakable industry leader
3. Easily understandable in 3 seconds

不會變的公司等於巴菲特所說公司護城河，
和我的「魔法書」好學生特質都是同樣意思。

A company that won't change is equivalent to what Buffett called company's moat, and it shares the same meaning as the "Magic Book" good student traits I mentioned.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 CDcBMo1

1. 產品不會變
這是一家公司可以好很久非常重要的特徵，
在電子股上特別明顯。
光碟片在CD-R時代中環跟錸德非常賺錢，
後來變DVD之後居然虧損累累，
這是電子股討厭的地方，一旦產品變了之後公司獲利就變了樣。

1. Irreplaceable products
This is a crucial characteristic for companies that can endure for a long time, particularly in the electronics industry.
For instance, CMC Magnetics (2323.TW) and Ritek (2349.TW) were highly profitable during the CD-R era, but suffered significant losses after the market shifted to DVDs.
This highlights the vulnerability of electronics stocks, where a shift in product can have a significant impact on a company's profitability.

現在我們最關心的，宏達電可以好很久嗎？
...抱歉，要改一下，宏達電可再好起來嗎？
變化太快講義來不及更改。

What we are most concerned about now is whether HTC can turnaround?
...Sorry, I need to make a change: Can HTC become good again?
The changes are happening too fast to update the handouts.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 1Oof6H8

這個問題要怎麼研究？就看它做什麼產品？
手機，手機會不會變？
很會變，宏達電可否好很久有很大問號！
不僅宏達電，幾年前聽到Nokia也曾赫赫有名，
沒想到後來被賣掉了。
三星也很危險，Note 7手機爆炸，「建達出奇蛋」。

How can we approach this issue? Does it depend on the type of product the company produces? For example, the cell phone industry is constantly changing. This makes it difficult for HTC to maintain a strong position in the long run. This is not only true for HTC, as even Nokia was a major player a few years ago but was eventually sold. Samsung is also not immune to challenges, as evidenced by the explosive Note 7 phone, which turned out to be a kind of "Kinder Surprise".

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 385HIg2

蘋果iPhone也越賣越差，變不出新花樣，
在中國市場每況愈下。
蘋果電腦、三星、Nokia、宏達電這4家公司
不是我們會想買的股票，因為產品會變。

Apple's iPhone has been experiencing a decline in sales in the Chinese market, and its new features are lacking, making it less attractive to consumers. Companies such as Apple, Samsung, Nokia, and HTC are not our preferred stocks as their products are prone to changes.

有人問最近巴菲特不是買了蘋果電腦嗎？
用同樣的方法選股，選出來的股票
70%一樣，30%有差異，很正常，
因每個人的知識背景有差異，見仁見智。
老巴以前認為蘋果會變，現在則覺得不會變，
對同一家公司看法改變也很常見。
蘋果電腦我認為是會變的公司。

Someone mentioned that Mr. Buffett recently purchased a large amount of Apple stock. Using the same method for selecting stocks, it is normal for 70% of the criteria to be the same and 30% to be different. This is because everyone has a different knowledge background and different opinions. While Buffett once thought that Apple would change, he now believes that it will remain durable. It is also common to change one's perception of the same company. Personally, I believe that Apple is a company that will continue to evolve.

同學不要按盈再表出來一看，
宏達電「合格」，預期報酬率26%，
就很興奮跳下去買。
合格出現之後底下來有紅色字提醒須再檢定公司會不會變。
我發現特地用紅色字標出的提示同學特別不會看！
宏達電和宸鴻這兩家公司的產品會變，不是我們會想買的公司。

Instead of just relying on the OK signal in On's table indicating a 26% expected return rate for HTC, it is important to consider the durability of the company before making a purchase decision. Despite the red reminder at the bottom of the table, it has been observed that students tend to ignore it. Given that the products of HTC and TPK Holding (3673.TW) are subject to change, these companies are not among our preferred choices.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 2fhhIqP

搞不清楚公司產品，可以到官網去看，
盈再表往右邊拉可以找到公司的網址，
點進去可進入公司的官網，
上面有產品介紹，有照片，一看就了解公司在做什麼。
新日興做樞紐的，樞紐是什麼東西？
看照片來就清楚了。

If you are unfamiliar with a company's products, you can visit its official website for information. To access the website, simply drag the company name to the right of On's table. Once you arrive at the website, you can view product information, photos, and gain an understanding of the company's operations. For example, Shinzushing (3376.TW) manufactures notebook computer hinges. If you are unsure what a hinge is, you can simply view a photo on the website to get a clear idea.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 6seIeJJ

mikeon88

2. 產業地位不會變 (A咖、龍頭股)
巴菲特說「消費者特許權」，
一般的特許權是政府給的，像石油、菸酒公賣、電信、高鐵。
巴菲特說最好的特許權是消費者給的，
即市占率高的公司，A咖或龍頭股。

2. Unshakable industry leader
Buffett referred to "consumer franchise" which can be granted by the government, such as in the sale of oil, tobacco, and alcohol, as well as in telecommunications and high-speed rail. However, the best franchise rights are given by consumers, which means a company with a higher market share.

龍頭股的獲利和股價表現都比同業優秀，而且可以好很久。
底下這些公司就最好證明：
統一、大統益、卜蜂、台塑、中鋼、豐興、正新、台積電、
台達電、中華電、大立光、和泰車、中保、巨大、統一超

Companies that demonstrate strong profitability and share price performance are often considered industry leaders that can maintain their position over the long term. The following companies serve as excellent examples:
Uni-President (1216.TW), TTET Union, Charoen Pokphand Taiwan (1215.TW), Formosa Plastics, China Steel, Fenghsin (2015.TW), Cheng Shin Rubber (2105.TW), TSMC, Delta Electronics, Chunghwa Telecom (2412.TW), Largan Precision, Hotai Motor (2207.TW), Taiwan Secom (9917.TW), Giant (9921.TW), President Chain Store

這些公司我們何時知道它們很好，從我們小時候就知道了，
直到現在都還很好，可以好很久。

When did we realize that these companies were good? We've known it since we were kids. And even now, they continue to perform well and are expected to last for a long time.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 OJB8hwZ

名牌也屬龍頭股，賣得越貴大家越搶著買的就是名牌。
逛百貨公司看到一支Burberry雨傘標價7,000元，
當場就很恭敬地把它放下來不敢打開，
心想這輩子用的雨傘全部加起來也不會超過7,000元。
轉身看它另外一個專櫃賣風衣標價7萬元，
突然覺得那把雨傘還蠻便宜的。
幾年後同學糾正我「麥可，你好久沒有去逛百貨公司了？」
才想起來，7,000元是2002年的價格。
同學說現在一把2萬元，這還是2013年的價格。

Well-known brands are often industry leaders, and their products are priced higher because consumers are willing to pay a premium for them. I once saw a Burberry umbrella in a department store priced at NT$7,000 and decided not to purchase it because it was too expensive. I thought to myself that I have never spent more than NT$7,000 on an umbrella in my entire life. However, when I looked at the prices of other items, such as long trench coats priced at NT$70,000, I began to think that the umbrella was actually quite cheap. Years later, one of my students corrected me and informed me that a Burberry umbrella now costs around NT$20,000, which is still a 2013 price.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 BZo21A0

逛百貨公司深受刺激，想買不起名牌，當股東總可以吧！
就去買Coach的股票，最慘時賠了40%，
賠的錢都可以買它3個包包了，
現在一想，當股東最貴，早知當時應該買包包。
Coach因獲利不佳股價大跌，自己的公司要自己救，
我又花了1萬元買它一個皮夾。越套越深！

Shopping in a department store can be painful for me, especially when I can't afford a famous brand. So, I decided to become a shareholder at least. I invested in Coach's stock, but unfortunately, I lost 40% of my investment at the worst. That could have bought me three wallets. Now, I realize that being a shareholder can be more expensive than buying a wallet. Due to Coach's poor profits, their stock price plummeted, and I had to save myself. But even as I was trying to cut my losses, I ended up buying another wallet for NT$10,000, and now I feel even more stuck.

公司產品的市場佔有率去哪裡查？
盈再表底下介紹這一格點進去，
跑到MoneyDJ網頁，有公司介紹的文章，
點入，文中會提到產品市占率。

Where can you check the market share of a company's products?
You can click on the "Introduction" button under Table 1 on On's website. This will take you to the MoneyDJ webpage, where there are articles about the company. By clicking on one of these articles, you can find information on the market share of the company's products.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 Uru0xxE

現在較為偷懶少點進去看，反正買龍頭股就對了，
台塑的市場佔有率多高？
反正就是很高。

Nowadays, I am lazier and do not bother clicking. Nevertheless, buying industry leaders is always a good strategy. What is the market share of Formosa Plastics? It is undoubtedly very high.

巴菲特提到，若市佔率高到獨佔的地位，
即便出現連白癡都能經營的公司其實是最好的公司。
中鋼就是，台灣唯一煉鋼廠，
這幾年換很多任董事長，產業地位仍然不變。

Mr. Buffett once stated that if a company has a high enough market share to dominate, it can be run by an idiot and still be the best company. China Steel is the only steelmaking plant in Taiwan, and despite multiple changes in leadership over the past few years, its position as an industry leader remains unchallenged.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 WIkcp0z

台北悠遊卡公司也是，
幾年前找了一個連白癡去當董事長，
...我是在稱讚這家公司。
拿悠遊卡去高雄的超商可以刷，
拿高雄的捷運卡來台北最近能夠刷。
悠遊卡具獨占地位，
只是之前不曉得公司這麼好，
看到他居然可以去當董事長，才發現原來這麼好啊！

The Taipei EasyCard company is also one, a few years ago they hired someone even considered foolish as their chairman... I am praising this company. You can use the EasyCard to pay at convenience stores in Kaohsiung, and recently, you can use the Kaohsiung MRT card to pay in Taipei. The EasyCard has a monopoly position, but I didn't know the company was this good before. It wasn't until I saw that someone considered foolish could become their chairman that I realized how great they are!

mikeon88

相反的，經營團隊離開會讓人擔心的公司就可能會變。
郭台銘在鴻海的地位非常關鍵，
鴻海是一家好公司，可是就巴菲特的角度來看來，不是最好的公司。

On the contrary, if the management team leaves the company, investors become concerned as the company may undergo changes. Terry Guo's position in Hon Hai is crucial. While Hon Hai is a good company, it may not be the best company from Mr. Buffett's perspective.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 Pdvmgfi

工具機的亞崴，好幾年前總經理離職，帶了一票人離開，
當時大家都擔心會回過頭來競爭，
亞崴可能是一家好公司，但非最好公司。
2008年有個同學跟我說，
他和外圍的資金去買亞崴，買到可以當董監事，
打電話去公司問問題時跟他這樣嗆聲，
發言人都會把公司的狀況一五一十來跟他報告。
同學又跟工具機上下游業者搞好關係，
自認為對整個工具機產業掌握度非常高。
2008年世界經濟陷入危機，亞崴也受到影響獲利衰退，
股價跌到20幾元，
這位同學非常緊張，連續打了2通電話問我對亞崴的看法？
我完全沒研究，只好回他
「你問我，我要問誰？You ask me, me ask who？」
同學後來跟我說，當亞崴股價跌到最低20元的時候，
他就把整個股票賣光光，
賣完之後來股價就漲上來。

everal years ago, the general manager of AWEA Mechantronic (1530.TW), a machine tool manufacturer, left the company with a group of people.
At the time, there were concerns that they would come back to compete with the company. Although AWEA may be a good company, it is not the best company. In 2008, a student told me that he and his friends had purchased enough AWEA stocks to become directors and supervisors.
When he called the company to ask questions, he would confront the spokesperson with a sharp tone, who would then report the company's situation in detail to him.The student also established good relationships with industry participants both upstream and downstream of the machine tool industry and believed that he had a high level of understanding of the entire industry. During the 2008 global economic crisis, AWEA's profitability declined, and its stock price dropped to around NT$20. The student was very nervous and called me twice to ask for my opinion on AWEA. Since I had no expertise in this area, I replied, "You ask me, me ask who?", using a Taiwanese English expression. Later, the student informed me that he sold all of his AWEA shares when the stock price fell to its lowest point of NT$20. After he sold his shares, the stock price went up.

同時期中鋼的表現更差，
亞崴只是獲利衰退，中鋼則單季虧損，
中鋼股價跌到23元時我和巴班同學都跳進去買中鋼買得很高興，
請問為何這麼大的差別呢？
因為一個是A咖，一個是B咖，
中鋼是A咖，亞崴是B咖。

During the same period, China Steel's performance was poor, with a 25% loss, while AWEA's profits were only declining. When China Steel's stock price fell to NT$23, my students and I were delighted to buy China Steel shares. The reason for the big difference in performance is that China Steel is a first-tier company, while AWEA is a second-tier company.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 O2P5wJQ

同樣獲利衰退，中鋼是什麼原因呢？
景氣！
亞崴又是什麼問題呢？
可能是一些不為人所知的個別因素。
建議儘量買A咖，
因B咖一旦出事想破頭都不知道是什麼原因，
股票會抱不下去。

Why did China Steel suffer the same profit decline? Business recession! On the other hand, it's unclear what went wrong with AWEA, possibly due to unknown individual factors. That's why I suggest investing in first-tier companies as much as possible. When a second-tier company encounters a problem, even if you are at a loss for ideas and don't know why, it's best not to hold onto that stock for a long time.

之前有人不喜歡買A咖，以為股性牛皮，
事實證明不然，台積電、大立光這幾年就是大飆股。
只要高ROE，股價便宜，就一定會漲。

In the past, some investors avoided buying industry leaders because they believed their stock prices were stagnant. However, recent years have proven otherwise, as companies like TSMC and Largan have experienced significant growth. As long as a company's ROE is high and its stock price is undervalued, it is likely to rise.

分析師當了近30年，我最後的心得：
「越不用花時間研究就知道是好公司的，將來也不會出事！」
這意思是說，當分析師是一件沒有意義的事。

Based on my 30 years of experience as an analyst, I have come to the realization that sometimes it only takes a brief study to recognize a good company with a promising future. This indicates that the role of an analyst may be overrated.

買股票還是不免發生買的當時覺很好，
可是一年半載之後才發現變得越來越差，
這時你總是會問，它是一時月考考差還是永久變壞，
兩者如何區別？
什麼是月考考差？指景氣，
什麼是永久變壞？產品或產業地位改變。

When buying stocks, it is inevitable that we will feel good about it at the time, but after a year and a half, we may find that the company is getting worse. At this point, we always ask whether the decline is temporary or permanent. What is the difference between the two?
Temporary decline refers to changes in the business cycle, while permanent deterioration refers to changes in the product or industry position.

中鋼這幾年獲利慘澹，因景氣不佳，
不只中鋼，中國寶鋼、韓國浦項、美國Nucor
這4家煉鋼廠近幾年ROE都只有5％，
是全球性鋼鐵業景氣的問題。

In recent years, China Steel's earnings have been poor due to the economic downturn. Other companies in the steel industry such as Baosteel of China (600019.CN), Pohang Iron & Steel of South Korea (005490.KR), and Nucor (NUE) of the US have also experienced low ROE of only 5%. This downturn is reflective of a global slump in the steel industry.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 IISM3gD

宏達電獲利變赤字連連是什麼原因？
產業地位改變，
它最早是智慧手機第3大製造商，
現在淪落成第23大製造商。

What caused HTC to go from making profits to incurring losses?
There has been a shift in the industry landscape. Previously, HTC held the position of the third largest smartphone manufacturer, but now it has fallen to the 23rd spot.

mikeon88

3. 想3秒鐘就了解的公司
巴菲特說「簡單的企業」，
何謂「簡單」？
想3秒鐘就懂。

3. Easy to understand in 3 seconds
What did Mr. Buffett mean by "simple business"?
Easy to explain in 3 seconds.

巴菲特又說「要按每個人的能力範圍去選股」，
什麼是能力範圍呢？
具體量化不就是想3秒鐘嗎，
會拿出來問的就表示超出理解範圍。

What did Buffett mean by "choose stocks according to everyone's scope of competence"? Simply put, it means investing in companies that you understand well. If you have questions about a company, it may be outside your area of competence.

想3秒鐘就好，別想太久，不要想三天三夜喔。
普安做磁碟陣列控制器，這是什麼東西？
1 秒鐘、2秒鐘、3秒鐘，
想不出來就不要理它了，這家公司跟你無關了。

Just think about it for 3 seconds, don't overthink it, don't spend three days and three nights on it.
What is Infortrend (2495.TW) doing? They manufacture disk array controllers.
One second, two seconds, three seconds...
If you can't figure it out, just ignore it. This company may not be relevant to you.

宏正做KVM切換器，這是什麼？
1 秒鐘、2秒鐘、3秒鐘，想不出來就放棄。

ATEN International (6277.TW) manufactures KVM switches, which stands for Keyboard, Video, Mouse switch.
What does this mean? Take one second, two seconds, three seconds... If you don't know, it's okay to give up.

底下這些都是簡單的企業：
台塑？做塑膠的，
中鋼？鋼鐵，
統一超？超商，
巨大？腳踏車。
這一家最簡單，
台積電？晶圓代工。
馬上能夠講得出口的就是簡單的企業，就這樣判斷！

Here are some examples of straightforward businesses:
Formosa Plastics - manufacturing plastics
China Steel - producing steel
Presidential Chain - operating supermarkets
Giant - manufacturing bicycles
And here's the simplest one:
TSMC - providing IC foundry services.
You can immediately tell what each company does. So, use this approach to evaluate companies!

同學寫伊媚兒問我某支股票能否好很久？
她說想了好久！
建議她買簡單的企業，
還解釋什麼叫簡單？就是想3秒鐘。
會拿出來問的就不是簡單易懂的公司。

A student wrote me an email asking whether a certain stock is durable ?
She said she had been thinking about it for a long time.
I suggested that she invest in a simple company and explained what I meant by simple - a company that can be understood in three seconds.
If you have to ask about a company, then it may not be simple enough to understand easily.

她說「喔～醬子還是很難判斷！」
很難判斷就是答案了！
同學都已經把答案講出來了自己來還不知道。
很難判斷就不簡單啊。

She said, "Oh, it's still difficult to judge!"
When it's difficult to judge, that is the answer!
If the student have already explained the answer and she still doesn't know, then it's not a simple matter.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 6amP90l

初學者問，他所知不多那豈不只能買那些少數的龍頭股？
若只懂得買那些少數的龍頭股反而比較安全，
而且股價也很會漲，這幾年台積電、大立光就是大飇股。
等到學得越多之後，能力範圍自然就廣了。

A beginner asks, if they don't know much, should they only buy a few leading stocks?
It may be safer to only buy those few leading stocks that they are familiar with, and these stocks may also have higher potential for growth. In recent years, TSMC and Largan have been very successful stocks.
As the beginner's knowledge and abilities grow, they can start to expand their investment options.

mikeon88

講稿 12/21 多種果樹
Lecture 12/21 Diversification

如何避免公司變壞的風險？

第一買不會變的公司，

第二多種果樹，

建議持股同等金額平均分散，

例如持股100支，每檔股票占總投資金額1%，

單一持股買最多買2份，即2%，

2份買滿之後就不要再攤了，

把最大風險控制在2份。

How to Avoid the Risk of a Company Deteriorating

First, invest in companies that are unlikely to change.

Second, diversify broadly—like planting many different fruit trees.

It’s best to distribute your portfolio evenly.

For example, if you hold 100 stocks, allocate about 1% of your total investment to each.

For any single stock, set a maximum allocation of 2% (two portions).

Once you’ve reached the 2-portion limit, don’t continue averaging down.

This way, you cap the maximum risk per stock at 2%.

我個人還會加一條規則

買了之後股價表現不佳

就不再攤第二筆

因為那樣簡直在獎勵壞學生

我買的淡水河谷(VALE)最慘時賠了90%，

若一直攤下去，現在還笑得出來嗎？

I personally follow one more rule:

If the stock performs poorly after purchase,

I won’t add a second position—because that would be like rewarding a bad student.

Take Vale (VALE) as an example: at its worst, I was down 90%.

If I had kept averaging down, would I still be able to laugh about it today ?

同學說他比較沒有錢，沒辦法分散？

沒關係，一支一支慢慢種，
存夠錢了再去買第二支。
每個人都是從沒有錢變成有錢的，這是人生的過程，
我當完兵剛出社會存款僅6萬元，也買股票買得很高興。
年輕朋友應該慶幸這麼早就遇見巴菲特，
我這輩子最大的遺憾是為何不能在國中
就認識巴菲特！

Students may feel like they don't have enough money to diversify their investments, but it's okay to slowly invest in stocks one by one. Save up enough money to purchase another stock and gradually build a diversified portfolio. Everyone goes through the process of transitioning from having no money to accumulating wealth. For example, after serving in the military, I only had NT$60,000 to start investing in stocks. Today's young people are fortunate to have learned about Buffett's investment philosophy at an early age. My biggest regret in life is not having learned about Buffett when I was in junior high school.

同學問買股票要不要設停損？
我一直不認為設停損是好的方法，
因為很容易被巴來巴去，
設10%停損，股票常常跌到12%停損之後反彈。
在「魔法書」曾寫到
1992年跟一位歐巴桑推薦買聯電20元，
漲到30元碰到歐巴桑恭喜她，
她卻苦笑說賠錢，
我不解「怎麼會賠錢呢？不相信我嗎？」
她說相信，相信我3次。
20元推薦她想了一下漲上去才追，
後來跌破月線就賣掉，再漲上去再追，
跌破月線又賣掉，連續買了3次賠錢出場。
這是根據月均線操作的缺點。
後來聯電最高漲到175元，還原股價高達300元。

The students asked if they should set a cut-loss point. I don't believe that setting a cut-loss point is a good strategy, as it can lead to losses through speculative trading. For instance, if we set a cut-loss point of 10%, but the stock often rebounds at 12%, we would miss out on potential gains. I wrote in my "Magic Book" about a recommendation I made to a senior lady to buy UMC (2303.TW) at NT$20 in 1992. I congratulated her when the stock price rose to NT$30. However, she was unhappy and said that she was losing money. I was puzzled and asked her how she could be losing money since she trusted and believed in me when I recommended the stock to her at NT$20. She explained that she had bought the stock, but then sold it when it broke the monthly moving average, only to buy it back three times at higher prices and ultimately losing money. This is an example of the disadvantage of monthly moving average trading. UMC later rose to a maximum of NT$175, and the adjusted stock price was as high as NT$300.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 D36eNxQ

建議單一持股最多買2份，
已經隱含了設停損的意思，
即這支股票最多賠2份的錢。

It is recommended to purchase a maximum of two shares of a single holding. The implication of setting a cut-loss point is that we are willing to lose up to two shares of the stock.

mikeon88

如果持股夠分散就不必停損，
此話一出舉座皆驚，以為我在打狂語，
不然，其實這是很簡單的數學道理而已。
股票跌的話最多賠 1 倍，
漲則可賺好幾倍，
用賺好幾倍來彌補賠 1 倍的，絕對綽綽有餘。

If your investment portfolio is well-diversified, you may not need to use stop-loss measures. While this may be surprising to some, it is based on a simple mathematical principle. If a stock falls, you may only lose a small portion of your portfolio, but if it rises, you have the potential to earn several times your initial investment. The gains from earning several times can outweigh the losses from any small dips in the portfolio.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 I2G5ont

問題出在哪裡？
出在大部份人沒有漲好幾倍的股票，
因都在跑來跑去。
請多給一點時間跟空間讓持股可以漲好幾倍。
用巴菲特方法要賺好幾倍是很容易的事，
在講稿5/21即秀過一張漲倍圖，漲倍股比比皆是。

Where is the problem?
The problem lies in the fact that most people don't have stocks that have multiplied in value several times, as they are all engaged in speculative trading. You need to give your holdings more time and space to rise several times in value.
Using the Buffett method, it's easy to earn several times your initial investment.
In Lecture 5/21, I presented a chart showing my tenbaggers, or stocks that have increased in value tenfold.

請不要漲20%先賣一趟，套牢了就不賣，
這是很多人的操作策略，
如此操作預期報酬率的期望值是負的，
期望值即平均數，
+20%和-100%平均為負數，
表示玩到最後注定賠錢出場。

It is not advisable to sell stocks solely based on a 20% gain and hesitate to sell when experiencing losses. This investment strategy is used by many investors, but it ultimately results in a negative expected return rate. Expected value mean an average, the expected return rate is calculated as the average of a 20% gain and a 100% loss. Therefore, following this approach will likely lead to losses.

mikeon88

有人買股票喜歡重押一支，又押錯，
來跟我哭訴問我怎麼辦？
被套牢了，我的建議只有一個，
就是請先賣一半，
這樣至少會對一半，才有翻身的機會。

Some investors prefer to invest in a single stock, but they often choose the wrong one. They come to me in distress, asking what they should do.
If you find yourself in this situation, my suggestion is to sell half of your shares. This way, you can at least recoup some of your investment.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 P6UIfwN

如此不管漲跌我都沒有責任，
後來發現，不對，不管漲跌我都有事，
股票繼續跌同學會說為什麼只叫他賣一半，
股票漲了則怪我為何要叫他賣一半！
2015年漲到 1 萬點建議大家減碼，
跌到7,200同學拿剩下的持股來質問我
為何持股績效那麼差？
當然差，證明 1 萬點叫大家賣是對的啊。

So, I am not responsible for any rise or fall. Later, I realized that it's not true, I have a responsibility regardless of whether the stock goes up or down. If the stock continues to fall, the student will complain about why I only advised them to sell half. If the stock rises, they will blame me for telling them to sell half! In 2015, when the market rose to 10,000 points, I recommended everyone to reduce their holdings. Later, when the market fell to 7,200, a student questioned me about why the performance of the remaining stocks was so poor. "Of course, it's poor, which proves that advising everyone to sell at 10,000 points was the right decision!

我反對集中持股，因任何人都會買錯股票，
連股神巴菲特也不例外，
祂不是偶爾買錯股票而是常常。
2013年買能源未來控股公司的公司債後來變成壁紙，
賠了262億元台幣(8.37億美元)。
2008年投資愛爾蘭的2家銀行也倒閉。
若老巴把全部資產押在這3家公司，我的巴菲特班就要改名了。

I discourage making concentrated bets because even Warren Buffett is not immune to buying the wrong stock. In fact, he has done so on several occasions. For example, in 2013, he invested in corporate bonds of Energy Future Holdings, which ultimately became worthless and resulted in a loss of NT$26.2 billion (US$837 million). Additionally, two Irish banks that he invested in went bankrupt in 2008. If Mr. Buffett had put all his assets into these three companies, I would have to rename my Buffett class.

有人說巴菲特不是主張持股要集中嗎？
你的持股到底應該集中還是分散，
不是看巴菲特怎麼說，而是要問自己，
股票被套牢了老巴不會來救你。

Some people claim that Mr. Buffett advocates concentrated investing. However, whether you choose to concentrate or diversify your assets is not a decision to be based solely on what Buffett has said. Ultimately, it is up to you to make this decision and take responsibility for it. Remember that if you find yourself stuck in a particular stock, Mr. Buffett will not be there to bail you out.

mikeon88

在決定要集中或分散持股之前
必須先弄清楚一個關鍵：買錯股機率多高？
亦即買了之後賠20%機率多高？
根據我自己和同學的經驗，買錯股機率大概就是3成。

Before deciding whether to concentrate or diversify your stock holdings, it's crucial to first address a key question: What is the likelihood of selecting the wrong stock? In other words, how likely is it that the stock you purchase will drop by 20%? From my own and my students' experiences, the probability of choosing the wrong stock is approximately 30%.

買錯股所有人檢討的結論一定是加強研究，
多拜訪公司，深入挖掘財報，廣泛閱讀財經媒體，
再佐以技術分析等等。
一個殘酷的事實擺在眼前卻是
這3成買錯股機率無法大幅降低，
連投資大神也一樣，
巴菲特常常買錯股，
孟格生平最後一檔持股即栽在阿里巴巴上。

The conclusion drawn from the review of everyone who has made incorrect stock purchases is always to intensify research. This involves visiting companies more frequently, delving deeper into financial statements, extensively reading financial media, and supplementing with technical analysis, among other strategies.

A harsh reality stares us in the face: the probability of making incorrect stock purchases, at 30%, cannot be significantly reduced. Even investment gurus face the same challenge. Warren Buffett frequently makes incorrect stock purchases, and Charlie Munger's final stock investment was mistakenly placed in BABA.

3成買錯機率若集中押注在少數幾支，績效容易大好大壞，
押對了就大好，錯了即大壞，最終以大壞收場，
只要最後一次押錯就前功盡棄，注定破產。

When this 30% probability of making incorrect purchases is concentrated in a few stocks, performance can swing dramatically. Making the right choices leads to significant gains, while incorrect decisions result in substantial losses, ultimately leading to adverse outcomes. Just one misstep can undo all prior successes, potentially leading to bankruptcy.

如何降低大好大壞的偏差？
統計學的區間估計提供解決的辦法。
選股就是統計學的抽樣，
選錯股機率3成，即勝率(p) 70%
可是抽樣得到的結果不會每次剛好70%，而是有偏差，
例如只挑一支，選對的話勝率100%，錯則勝率為0，
若選5檔股票，勝率將介於29%到100%之間，
......
隨著樣本數增加，勝率很可能落在正負2個標準差之內。

How to reduce the bias of extreme outcomes?
Interval estimation in statistics provides a solution. Stock selection is like statistical sampling. The probability of picking the wrong stock is 30%, meaning the success rate (p) is 70%. However, the results from sampling won't always be exactly 70%, as there will be some bias.
For example, if you only pick one stock, the success rate is either 100% if correct or 0% if wrong. If you pick 5 stocks, the success rate will range between 29% and 100%.
......
As the sample size increases, the success rate is likely to fall within plus or minus two standard deviations.

上述「勝率很可能落在正負2個標準差之內」換成統計術語為：
在信心水準95%之信賴區間為正負2個標準差s
[p - 2s, p + 2s] = [70% - 2s, 70% + 2s]
信心水準95%即白話文的「很可能」

The statement "The success rate is likely to fall within plus or minus two standard deviations" can be expressed in statistical terms as:
At a 95% confidence level, the confidence interval is plus or minus 2 standard deviations (s), written as:
[p−2s,p+2s]=[70%−2s,70%+2s]
In this context, a 95% confidence level is equivalent to saying "very likely" in common language.

標準差指資料之間的平均距離
＝[px(1-p)/n]^0.5 = [70%x30%/n]^0.5
樣本數n

The standard deviation refers to the average distance between data points.
= [px(1-p)/n]^0.5 = [70%x30%/n]^0.5
Sample size n

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 UvDHOMw

n=1, [0, 100%]，單押1支勝率很可能為0或100%
n=5, [29%, 100%]，僅押5支勝率很可能落於29%到100%之間
以上均顯示績效大好大壞

When n=1, [0, 100%], there is a high likelihood that the winning rate for a single bet could be either 0% or 100%.
When n=5, [29%, 100%], with only five bets, the winning rate could likely range from 29% to 100%.
Both scenarios demonstrate significant variability in performance, ranging from very poor to very good.

n=100, [61%, 79%]，買到100支勝率很可能落於61%到79%之間，
勝率至少61%算是可接受水準，這是我建議至少買100支持股的原因

When n=100, [61%, 79%], buying 100 stocks could likely result in a winning rate falling between 61% and 79%.
A winning rate of at least 61% is considered acceptable, which is why I recommend purchasing at least 100 stocks.

上述至少買100檔持股的統計證明相當重要，
分散或集中持股不再是見仁見智沒有結論的議題，
而是必須遵守的準則。
也給足大家信心，
持股100支以上績效大壞的可能性低，
不必每天緊張兮兮關注股市，
有更多時間去吃喝玩樂

The above statistical evidence underscores the significance of holding a minimum of 100 stocks in your portfolio. Whether to diversify or concentrate one's holdings is no longer a debatable issue, but a guideline that must be followed. This also gives everyone confidence that the likelihood of poor performance with holding more than 100 stocks is low. There is no need to be nervous and pay close attention to the stock market every day, instead, we can spend more time enjoying life.

買超過100檔持股不用擔心績效會不好，
因為我們並非亂槍打鳥，
而是從預期年報酬率大於15%的入圍名單中選股。
100支以上持股的績效會穩定趨向15%年報酬率。

Buying over 100 stocks, there's no need to worry about poor performance because we're not shooting blindly. Instead, we choose stocks from a list of candidates with expected annual returns greater than 15%. A portfolio holding over 100 stocks will tend to stabilize towards a 15% annual return rate.

持股夠分散才可能長期投資，
即便是好公司，股價也可能長期不振，
台積電在大漲到2022年688元之前
2003-2011年長達9年在40-80元區間盤整，
單押一檔台積電的投資人十分難熬，不容易抱得住。

Diversified holdings are crucial for long-term investment success. Even well-performing companies can experience extended periods of stagnant stock prices. For instance, TSMC's stock price fluctuated between 40 and 80 TWD from 2003 to 2011, remaining in this range for nearly nine years before it soared to 688 TWD in 2022. Investors who exclusively held TSMC shares found this period particularly challenging to endure and difficult to maintain their investment.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 0lmIFNX

mikeon88

我美股賠最慘的淡水河谷曾跌了90%，
它是巴西的鐵礦砂廠，世界最大。
巴西股跟我八字不合，2013年就買了VALE，
當時美國景氣正要復甦，QE尚未退場，
此時買原料股景氣循環股最適當了，買在起漲點。
不料後來美國景氣復甦了，其它國家卻無起色，
這種復甦不同調的現象過去罕見，
鐵礦砂價格甚至創歷史新低，
加上巴西幣貶值5成，
VALE股價跌了90%。

I suffered the biggest loss in VALE, which dropped by 90%. VALE is an iron ore company in Brazil and is the world's largest. Brazilian stocks do not suit me, but I bought VALE in 2013. At that time, the US economy was on the verge of recovery, and the Fed had stopped quantitative easing. Therefore, it was the best time to buy raw material stocks for cyclical growth. Unexpectedly, while the US economy later recovered, other countries did not improve. This kind of uneven recovery was rare in the past, and the price of iron ore even hit a record low. Furthermore, with the Brazilian currency depreciating by 50%, VALE's shares dropped by 90%.

仔細反省，VALE為景氣循環股，
股價波動太激烈令人承受不起，
改買公用事業股就穩當了。
同學力薦AESAY，巴西水利發電廠，
水利發電不受燃料價格影響。
買了之後卻遇百年大乾旱，股價跌了50%。
想說忍耐一下老天總是會下雨，
果然下雨了，股價反彈在望，
2016年2月股價最低時公司卻宣布下市，
強制把股票賣在最低點。
玩家還想繼續玩，莊家卻把籌碼收走了。

After careful consideration, I realized that VALE is a highly cyclical stock, with a stock price that fluctuates greatly. In contrast, it is safer to invest in public utility stocks. One student strongly recommended AES Tiete SA (AESAY), a hydroelectric power plant in Brazil, which is not affected by fuel prices. However, after I bought it, the company experienced a hundred-year drought, causing its stock price to fall by 50%. But eventually, it rained and the stock price rebounded. Unfortunately, in February 2016, when the stock price was at its lowest, the company announced its delisting, forcing me to sell the stock at the lowest price. It's like a player wanting to continue playing, but the dealer takes away their chips.

2016年VALE強勁強彈，股價漲了4倍，
是我手中持股有史以來一年內漲最多的，
而我仍賠了50%，
預計總共要反彈9倍，才會解套，
淡水河谷成了我的永恆持股。

In 2016, VALE had a strong rebound, and its stock price rose 4 times. It was the highest increase in my holdings within a year in history, yet I still lost 50%. It is estimated that it will require a total of 9 rebounds to mitigate my loss. VALE has become my eternal holding.

mikeon88

我的持股完整公告在討論區和部落格，
無任何保留，歡迎查閱。
我是台灣唯一敢把持股完整且長期公開的人，
不像一些人好的時候公開，不好時則收起來。

The complete list of my holdings can be found in the discussion forum and blog. I welcome you to review it without any reservations and feel free to consult with me if you have any questions. I am the only person in Taiwan who has dared to publicly disclose my complete list of holdings permanently. This is unlike some individuals who only disclose their holdings when their performance is good, and then keep it private when their performance is bad.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 KRx0Gbl

我的持股有任何買賣變動會立即公佈，
不僅事後公告，更喜歡預告，
若白天已決定要買什麼股票，
會把單子下好貼在討論區。
預告有個好處，必惹來同學的一陣批評，
還可以再思考一下。

I will make immediate announcements regarding any changes to my holdings. This will not only include an announcement after a transaction, but also a preview beforehand. If I decide which stocks to purchase on a given day, I will post my order in the discussion forum. This kind of notification is advantageous because it can lead to constructive criticism from readers, which will cause me to reconsider my decisions. Therefore, I am committed to being transparent about my stock holdings and welcome feedback from my peers.

我的持股將如同楚門世界一樣，接受嚴格監督，
讓大家見證如何從一片苗圃長成一座大森林。
為何公開持股？
因2012年開戶時敲鑼打鼓邀喝同學一起前進美股，
這個戶頭是在大家見證和祝福下開的，
大家在同一條起跑線出發，最公平。

My stock holdings will be strictly monitored, much like the Truman World program, to demonstrate how a small seedling can grow into a large forest. As for why I have decided to make my holdings public, it is because when I opened my account in 2012, I invited my students to invest with me in the US stock market. This account was opened with everyone's endorsement and blessings, and we all started from the same starting line, making it the most fair way to invest.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 3 Zyz6RQR

mikeon88

我美股打算100支，1 支買 1 萬美元，
為何到美股想分散成100支？
因2012年剛開戶時美股已漲高，猶豫是否進場？
按盈再表發現便宜的好公司仍然很多，即決定買進。
到美股如進寶山一樣，全世界最好的公司都在那裡，
都很想買，為控制購買慾就分散成100支，
這個決定的確達到控制持股比例的效果。

I am planning to purchase 100 U.S. stocks, with an allocation of $10,000 for each stock. Why have I decided to diversify my investment into 100 different stocks? When I opened my account in 2012, the U.S. stock market was already on the rise, making me hesitant to enter the market. However, upon reviewing On's table, I found that there were still many undervalued companies with good potential, prompting me to buy. Investing in the U.S. stock market is like discovering a treasure mountain full of the world's best companies. It's tempting to want to invest in all of them, but in order to control my purchasing desires and maintain a balanced portfolio, I have chosen to diversify my investment into 100 different stocks. This decision has effectively helped me to control my shareholding ratios.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 4 FuvXuIA

我很慶幸進美股之初一再高喊要多種果樹，
否則2015年金磚四國股市大崩盤，
股價腰斬再腰斬者比比皆是，
同學必定見獵心喜一攤再攤，將深陷泥沼。

Fortunately, when I entered the US stock market, I repeatedly emphasized the importance of diversification. This proved to be a wise decision in 2015 when the BRIC stock markets crashed, causing many stocks to fall by half. Without diversification, my students may have been tempted to buy on dips and found themselves in trouble.

因為買太多股票無法照顧，
每次季報出爐想研究一下，
盈再表按了3支就睡著了，後面的都沒按到，
下一季財報出來了，從後面按，按了3支又睏了。
每次都無法全部按完，既然自己沒辦法照顧，
只好公布出來請同學幫忙照顧。

I have found it difficult to manage my portfolio due to owning too many stocks. Whenever a quarterly report is released, I feel the need to study it thoroughly. However, after examining the first three holdings on On's table, I often become too fatigued to review the remaining stocks. When the financial report for the next quarter was released, I started from the end and checked three stocks before feeling sleepy again. Realizing that I cannot properly manage all of my stocks alone, I have decided to share my list with fellow students to seek their help.

同學的確在幫我照顧，好幾支股票貴了我都不知道，
看討論區同學貼出來「股票貴了為什麼還不賣？」
才去賣。
有一支LLY貴了同學貼出來，當時股價正在噴出，
想多等幾天貴了可以賣到更貴。
3天後馬上另一位同學續問
「貴了為何還不賣，要不要給個說法？」
不賣股票還要寫報告，只好賣給她看，
又賣在最高點。

My students are indeed taking good care of my holdings. I am not always aware of which stocks are becoming expensive. One day, while browsing through the forum, I came across a post from one of my students that read, "Why not sell the stock at an expensive price?" It made me realize that I had missed an opportunity to sell one of my stocks at a higher price. Without wasting any time, I sold it immediately. On another occasion, a student warned on the forum that LLY was expensive, and its stock price was skyrocketing. I decided to wait a few days before making any decision. After three days, another student asked me, "If it's expensive, why not sell it? Can you explain?" Since I didn't want to write a report for not selling the stock, I sold it to her. Thanks to my students' valuable insights and timely warnings, I was able to sell my stocks at the highest possible prices.

我們巴菲特班的投資流程：
同學在討論區報老師明牌，
我買了之後同學再蜂擁而上。

In our Buffett class, we have an investment standard operating procedure (SOP): students report their stock tips to the teacher on the discussion forum, and after I purchase the recommended stocks, my students flock to follow suit.

「不是立即而上，
而是等老師買了跌20%再上。」，
比較精明的同學這樣說。

The smarter students say that they don't rush to buy a stock immediately. Instead, they wait for the teacher to buy it, and then they observe if the stock price drops by 20%.

巴菲特班講稿 - 頁 4 RPY6af2

我的方法已教給大家，
買什麼股票也公告周知，
同學再學不會，不能怪我了！
若學不會就用拷貝的，
我一支買 1 萬美金，同學就買10萬美金，
就賺得比我多了。

I have shared my investment strategy with everyone and publicly disclosed the stocks I buy. If you are still unable to learn it, I cannot be held responsible. If you cannot learn, simply replicate my purchases. If I invest $10,000 in a stock and you invest $100,000 in the same stock, your profit will be greater than mine.

巴菲特班講稿

發表意見

廣告

Klook

KKday