盈再表上有一張績效表用來記錄投資績效，
等於是考試的總分，
考上哪間學校以總分為準。
很多人問我這樣的問題：
1. 該投資股票或買房、債券、ETF...？
2. 能不能以投資為本業？
我都難以回答
因為欠缺關鍵數字
即你的績效表
The On's table includes a performance table that tracks investment results.
it’s like a report card, and the total score determines which school you get into.
Many people ask me questions such as:
Should I invest in stocks, real estate, bonds, or ETFs?
Can I make investing my full-time career?
I find these questions difficult to answer — because what’s missing is one crucial number:
your own performance table.
是你的績效表，不是我的
同樣用巴菲特方法投資
結果不一樣
你該怎麼做？
我的績效表沒有任何參考意義。
大家應確實記錄自己的績效，
在重大問題上才能做出正確決定
It’s your performance table, not mine.
Even if we both use Warren Buffett’s investment methods,
the results will still be different. What should you do? My performance results have no reference value for you.
Everyone should diligently track their own investment performance —
only then can you make the right decisions on major issues.
我的績效12.5年平均14%，
債券殖利率3%，ETF 7%，房地產5%，
錢該擺哪裡很清楚了，
這是幼稚園入學考題
我小時上幼稚園入學要考試，
老師拿兩塊積木一大一小，問我哪一個比較重？
跟上述問題一模一樣，
我非常驚訝，大人們竟弄不清錢該擺哪裡？
My average return over 12.5 years has been 14%.
In comparison, bond yields are around 3%, ETFs about 7%, and real estate roughly 5%.
It’s obvious where the money should go —
this is as basic as a kindergarten entrance exam question.
When I was a child, I had to take a test to get into kindergarten.
The teacher showed me two building blocks, one large and one small,
and asked which one was heavier.
It’s essentially the same kind of question.
I’m genuinely amazed that so many adults still can’t figure out where to put their money.
績效表用XIRR來算，而非IRR，
因為IRR假定現金投入和提出時間固定
可是實際做投資卻是不固定
The performance table should use XIRR rather than IRR,
as IRR assumes cash inflows and outflows occur at fixed intervals,
while in real-world investing, the timing is often irregular.
XIRR是年化報酬率，
自第一筆到本筆之投入報酬率。
2023年12%表示自2013年至今
10年平均績效為12%
XIRR is the annualized rate of return —
it represents the return from the first investment up to the current one.
A 12% XIRR in 2023 means that the average annual return from 2013 to now
has been 12% over the past 10 years.
[本金]僅在加錢或提錢時才需增減，平時不變
[股票]和[現金]依帳上顯示填入
[Principal] should only be adjusted when adding or withdrawing funds; otherwise, it remains unchanged.
[Stocks] and [Cash] should be recorded based on the account statement.
若持股不到1年，XIRR的報酬率將超高，
如買了某股當天漲停板賺了10%，
XIRR為(1+10%)^365-1，高得嚇人
調整如下：
未滿 1 年 (1+XIRR)^(天數/365)-1
總獲利無論正負均用上式計算。
本調整公式係本人獨創，經過驗算無誤
If a stock is held for less than one year, the XIRR return can appear extremely high.
For example, if a stock hits the daily limit and gains 10% on the purchase day,
the XIRR would be calculated as (1 + 10%)^365 - 1 — an astonishingly high number.
To adjust for this, use the following formula:
For holdings less than one year:
(1 + XIRR)^(days held / 365) - 1
This formula should be used regardless of whether the total return is positive or negative.
This adjustment method is my own original creation and has been verified for accuracy.
上表總獲利3,014萬元，本金2,660萬元，
有人認為我的績效是年複利8%。
他錯了，用期末本金來算績效。
我的本金是由700萬元，1,400萬元 ...，逐年增加，
應以投入年數來加權本金，即僅1,600萬元。
The total profit shown in the above table is NT$30.140 million, and the principal is NT$26.601 million.
Some people think my performance is an 8% annual compound return.
They are mistaken because they calculate performance using the ending principal.
My principal increased year by year, starting from NT$7 million, then NT$14 million, and so on.
The principal should be weighted by the number of years invested, which amounts to only NT$16 million.
若想了解近5年來績效，
第一年為2017年至今的績效
可直接將10年表截半
此時2017年本金應改為股票+現金之24,778,950
而非17,775,983
If you want to understand the performance over the past five years,
the first year would be from 2017 to the present.
You can simply take half of the 10-year table.
At this time, the principal for 2017 should be adjusted to the combined stock and cash amount of 24,778,950,
instead of 17,775,983.
ArthurWang 2023-7-17 21:14
Mike-san在高度分散持股的情況下仍能在五年翻倍，
且每年創造至少10%-20%的穩定報酬率，
即便2022年巿場反轉對比2021年仍有8.5%成長。
在2021年GDP高點時減碼(持股比例99%->85%)，
並在2022年GDP低點回補(85%->99%)。
的確完美的實踐Mike-san創造的GDP理論，
完美績效令人嚮往。
Even with a highly diversified portfolio, Mike-san managed to double his capital in five years,
consistently achieving an annual return of at least 10%–20%.
Even in 2022, when the market reversed compared to 2021, he still saw an 8.5% gain.
He reduced his equity exposure at the 2021 GDP peak (from 99% to 85%)
and increased it again at the 2022 GDP trough (from 85% back to 99%).
This was a flawless application of the GDP theory Mike-san developed.
His outstanding performance is truly admirable.
用XIRR來算平均績效有一個問題
在不同期間下，
5年平均報酬率12%與8年平均報酬率10%，
誰的成績較好？
我提出一個指標，與巴菲特的距離，
以巴爺爺過去50年平均報酬率20%為基準。
1.2^50 ≈ 9,100 倍
您過去9.6年的平均報酬率為11%，
與巴菲特的距離為93 ，
數值越小代表表現越接近巴菲特，表現優秀。
There is an issue when using XIRR to calculate average performance:
Over different periods, which is better — a 12% average annual return over 5 years or a 10% average annual return over 8 years？
I propose an indicator called the "Distance from Buffett,"
using Buffett’s average 20% annual return over the past 50 years as a benchmark.
1.2^50 ≈ 9,100 times growth.
If your average return over the past 9.6 years is 11%,
your distance from Buffett is 93.
The smaller the number, the closer your performance is to Buffett’s, indicating better performance.
計算方式如下：
差距A (時間差)：
A = 1.2^(50 − 9.6)，再開平方根得A^0.5 ≈ 40
開根號是為了避免數字過大，保持計算穩定
差距B (報酬率差)：
(1 + 11%)^B = 9,100，解得 B ≈ 87 年
與巴菲特的距離：
距離 = 100 × (A^0.5 × B) ÷ 3,701
其中，3,701 是參考一組基準值計算得出：
3,701 = (1.2^(50 − 8 ))^0.5 × log(9100,1+12%)，
代表「以12%年報酬率、投資8年」所對應的比較基準。
特別感謝江文宏桑協助指導差距B 的公式設計。
Gap A (time difference):
A = 1.2^(50 − 9.6), then take the square root to get A^0.5 ≈ 40
The square root is used to keep the numbers manageable and maintain calculation stability.
Gap B (return difference):
(1 + 11%)^B = 9,100, solving for B gives approximately 87 years.
Distance from Buffett:
Distance = 100 × (A^0.5 × B) ÷ 3,701
Where 3,701 is a reference baseline calculated as:
3,701 = (1.2^(50 − 8 ))^0.5 × log₍₉,₁₀₀₎ (1 + 12%)
This represents the comparison baseline for “12% annual return over 8 years.”
Special thanks to Mr. Wen-Hong Jiang for his guidance in designing the formula for Gap B.
建立一個穩定趨向15%年報酬率的投資組合是成為有錢人最重要步驟，
因為對這個投資組合有信心：
1. 才敢押身家，本金滾起來才會大。
2. 才願意長期一直擺著，不跑來跑去，這樣就有複利效果。
本金大 x 複利長 ＝ 有錢人
Building a portfolio that steadily aims for a 15% annual return is the most important step to becoming wealthy,
because having confidence in this portfolio means:
You’re willing to bet your entire capital — the principal will grow substantially over time.
You’re willing to hold it long-term without constantly moving in and out, allowing the power of compounding to work.
Large principal × long-term compounding = becoming wealthy.