GDP理論過去有3次出入較大，
其中2次是2003年和2005年。這2次出現W底，
不過只要堅持買在GDP低點，
即便不是買在最低點，離底部也不會太遠。
2003年買在4,044離底部3,845不遠，
2005年買在5,565距低點5,255很近。

In the past, there were three significant deviations from the GDP Theory, with two occurring in 2003 and 2005 where double W-bottoms were observed. However, if one remains committed to buying at a low GDP, even if it is not at the exact lowest point, it would not be too far from the bottom. For instance, the purchase made at 4,044 in 2003 was not far from the bottom of 3,845, while buying at 5,565 in 2005 was very close to the low of 5,255.

GDP理論同學質疑聲最大的是2010年這一次，
2010年第一季GDP年增率最高13.6%，
之後一路往下到2012年第二季才落底，走了2年半。
指數在2010年1月出現第一個頭部8,395，
之後跌到7,049，被QE2拉上來到9,221成第二個頭，
這是一個M頭。
這次就有人質疑GD理論不準了。

The most questioned instance of GDP Theory by students occurred in 2010. The annual GDP growth rate was at its highest in the first quarter, reaching 13.6%. Subsequently, it continued to decline for two and a half years until the second quarter of 2012. In January 2010, the market index reached its first peak at 8,395, then dropped to 7,049 before being boosted by Quantitative Easing 2 (QE2) to 9,221, forming a second peak in the shape of an "M". Despite this pattern, some individuals still raised doubts regarding the accuracy of the GDP Theory.

準不準不要單看指數，而是要看類股表現才知。
這次是分2批跌，電子、金融、散裝輪從8,395起跌，
另一半石油和高ROE股則被QE2拉上去到9,221才跌。
電子股若撐到9,221才賣已經來不及了，跌了3成。
細看類股表現仍然符合GDP理論。

It is important not to rely solely on the index, but to also examine the performance of different sectors. In the case of the market downturn, it occurred in two stages, with electronics, finance, and bulk shipping experiencing a decline from the peak of 8,395. On the other hand, oil and high ROE stocks were lifted by QE2 to 9,221 before eventually dropping. Holding onto electronics stocks until 9,221 proved to be too late, resulting in a 30% decline. Nevertheless, a careful analysis of sector performance still aligns with the principles of GDP Theory.

總之，GDP理論會遲到，不會不來。
面對它最好的心態跟農夫種果樹一樣，
在颱來季節來臨之前修剪果樹，
颱風來了做好萬全準備，沒來更好。

In summary, the GDP Theory might be delayed but it will eventually arrive. The best attitude towards it is like a farmer tending to fruit trees: prune the trees before the typhoon season arrives, and be fully prepared if a typhoon comes. If it doesn’t come, even better.

為何我們對GDP理論這麼重視，從過去的經驗來的，
2008年百年難得一見的金融風暴，
我們不是在2008年初才叫大家賣股票，而是2007年10月。
2007年指數漲到8,500即有同學反映找不到便宜的股票買，
我即提醒「那就少買一點。」
指數漲到最高點9,859之後的第三天我跳出來喊「高點到了」，
理由即依照主計處的預估GDP年增率高點在第三季，
所以遵守GDP理論的人賣在9,800，
在賣股時根本不知隔年會發生什麼事！

Why do I attach so much importance to GDP Theory ? It's because of my past experience. The financial crisis of 2008 was a rare occurrence in a century. In October 2007, we recommended that everyone sell their shares instead of waiting until early 2008. When the index rose to 8,500 in 2007, some students reported that they could not find cheap stocks to buy. I reminded them to "buy less." On the third day after the index rose to its highest point of 9,859, I jumped out and shouted "the high point is here" based on the estimated annual GDP growth rate of the DGBAS in the third quarter. People who followed the GDP Theory sold at 9,800. When selling stocks, I don't know what will happen next year!

主計處在每年2月、5月、8月、11月的25日公布上一季GDP，
並提出未來一年4季預測。
2007年11月25日主計處預估2008年第三季GDP年增率將最低，
這個預估我們認同，因2007年第三季GDP最高，
隔年2008第三季應當最低。
當時有位同學說他股票賣完了想去休年假，
我鼓勵他「去休假吧，等中秋節再回來」。

On the 25th of February, May, August, and November each year, the DGBAS announces the GDP of the previous quarter and provides a forecast for the next year's four quarters. On November 25, 2007, the DGBAS estimated that the annual GDP growth rate in the third quarter of 2008 would be the lowest. I agreed with this estimate because the GDP in the third quarter of 2007 was the highest, so the third quarter of 2008 should be the lowest in the following year. At that time, a student said that he wanted to take annual leave after his stocks were sold out. I encouraged him to "go on vacation and come back after the Mid-Autumn Festival."

這次GDP低點於2009年第一季才落底，因次貸風暴比預期嚴重。
指數3,955則在2008年11月觸底，
而我們在第三季6,000點時進場。
買股票是漸進的過程，
6,000點買了一些股票被套牢了，會害怕，
等到不跌了再買一些，又被套更怕，
被套牢會怕是天經地義，誰無父母，誰不會怕？
就這樣買買停停，買到2009年1月買到手軟腳軟，
才發現居然一路上去了。

The GDP hit a low point in the first quarter of 2009 due to the subprime mortgage crisis being worse than expected. The index hit its bottom at 3,955 in November 2008. We began buying stocks in the third quarter at 6,000 points. Buying stocks is a gradual process, and I initially bought some stocks at 6,000 points but got stuck and became afraid. I waited to buy more until the price stabilized, and I became even more afraid. It's natural to be afraid of getting stuck, and who doesn't have parents that worry about this? Despite these fears, I continued to buy, pause, and buy again until January 2009, and I found that the stock prices had risen continuously.

抱到2009年6月6,000點時有同學說，他想先賣一趟，
因為4,000抱到6,000賺够了，
我跳出來阻止「續抱，GDP顯示年底才是高點。」
就這樣一路抱到2010年1月8,300賣掉一半。
我賣的那一半都跌，鴻海賣在150元，國泰金59元，中鋼30幾元。
高ROE股仍留著。
2011年第一季指數回到9,200股價普遍貴，
當時提醒同學小心，卻無人鳥我，
只好把心愛的中碳拿出來賣給大家看，賣在173元的高價，
這就是2008年整個過程。

In June 2009, when the index reached 6,000 points, a student said he wanted to sell because he felt he had earned enough from 4,000 to 6,000 points. I jumped in to stop him, saying, 'Hold on, GDP indicates that the peak will be at the end of the year.' So, we held on all the way until January 2010, when I sold half at 8,300 points. The half that I sold all dropped—Hon Hai (2317.TW) sold at 150 TWD, Cathay Financial Holdings (2882.TW) at 59 TWD, and China Steel Corporation (2002.TW) at over 30 TWD. I kept the high ROE stocks. In the first quarter of 2011, the index returned to 9,200 points, and stock prices were generally expensive. I reminded my students to be cautious, but no one listened to me, so I had to take out my beloved China Carbon and sell it to show everyone, selling it at a high price of 173 TWD. This was the entire process in 2008.

歷經本次金融風暴給我們一個啟示：
只要在GDP高點減碼下來，管它什麼股災都跟我無關！
做投資最怕遇到股災，如何避掉？
很簡單，遵守GDP理論！

After the financial turmoil, we were inspired: If we cut positions at the highest point of GDP, it doesn't matter what market crashes occur.
Investors are most afraid of market crashes, but how can they be avoided? It's very simple, just follow the GDP Theory!

大家最關心的是現在GDP走勢如何？

Current GDP trends are a major concern for everyone.

不要預測指數高低點，那一定不準。
依GDP按表操課加減碼就好。
1. 在GDP年增率最高點減碼，但最多賣1/3。
若持股比例60%，可降至40%。
2. 儘量等到GDP低點再買股票

Do not predict the highs and lows of the index; it will definitely be inaccurate. Instead, adjust your holdings based on the GDP.
1. Reduce your holdings at the peak of GDP growth rate, but sell at most one-third. If your holding proportion is 60%, you can reduce it to 40%.
2. Wait to buy most stocks when GDP is at its lowest point.

投資有兩種風險大盤跟個股，
即系統性風險跟非系統性風險。
這兩個風險不是各佔1/2，
因為我們會選股，而且不做融資，
所以大盤風險對我們巴班而言比較小，
不是佔1/2，而是1/3。

There are two types of risks in investing: market risk and individual stock risk, also known as systematic risk and unsystematic risk. These two risks do not each account for 1/2 of the total risk. Because we select stocks and do not use margin trading, the market risk for us is relatively smaller, accounting for not 1/2, but 1/3.

2024年巴菲特不看好大盤大賣持股，保有最多現金
持股從3,540億美元下降至2,720億美元
減碼23%，符合我建議的最多賣1/3

2024年報：雖然我們在可交易股票的持有價值去年從3540億美元下降至2720億美元，但我們非上市控股股票的價值有所增加，且仍遠高於可交易投資組合的價值。

In 2024, Buffett is bearish on the market and is selling off a large portion of his holdings, keeping the most cash on hand.
His holdings have dropped from $354 billion to $272 billion, a 23% reduction.
This aligns with my recommendation of selling at most one-third.

2024 annual report：While our ownership in marketable equities moved downward last year from $354 billion to $272 billion, the value of our non-quoted controlled equities increased somewhat and remains far greater than the value of the marketable portfolio.

賣1/3已經足夠避掉大盤風險，

2/3持股+1/3現金=100%淨值

若大盤跌一半，

1/3持股+1/3現金=2/3淨值

這時1/3現金可加碼等量原持股

1/3持股+1/3加碼=2/3淨值

多了1倍持股且便宜5成

要反彈回100%淨值顯然簡單多了

Selling one-third of the position is enough to avoid broad-market risk.

2/3 stocks + 1/3 cash = 100% net asset value.

If the market drops by half,

1/3 stocks + 1/3 cash = 2/3 net asset value.

At that point, the one-third cash can be used to buy an amount of stock equal to the original position:

1/3 original stocks + 1/2 added stocks = 2/3 net asset value.

With your stock position doubled and purchased at a 50% discount,

recovering back to 100% net asset value becomes much easier.

要賣什麼股票？
1. 貴了
2. 不喜歡的持股
3. 指數型ETF (參見第19章)

What stocks should you sell?
1. Stocks that have become expensive
2. Holdings you don't like
3. Index ETFs (see Chapter 19)

賣股不是賣賺最多的，因那樣等於在處罰好學生，
表現好反而被賣掉，最後留下滿手爛股。

Selling stocks should not be based on which ones make the most profit, as this is like punishing the good students. Selling stocks simply because they perform well can result in keeping only the bad stocks in hand.

為何遵守GDP理論這麼重要？
這是從巴菲特班同學的經驗來的。
本班傑出校友謝士英教授，
高雄師範大學副教授，已退休。

Why is it so important to follow the GDP rule? This insight comes from the experience of my student, Shihying Sie, who was an outstanding alumnus of this class and went on to become an associate professor at Kaohsiung Normal University before retiring.

謝教授從2001年開始陸續投入500萬元買股，
重點、關鍵、轉捩點、人生的里程碑是2005年來上我的課，
股票一路抱到2007年9,800，資產來到2,000多萬元。
都沒賣2008年遇次貸風暴不幸縮水成700萬，
還是沒賣，資產現在又回升為2,000多萬元。

Since 2001, Professor Sie has invested NT$5 million. The turning point and milestone in his life was when he attended my course in 2005. In 2007, he held onto his shares as the market climbed all the way to 9,800 points, and his net assets exceeded NT$20 million. Despite the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis causing his net worth to shrink to NT$7 million, he held onto his holdings. His unsold shares have since rebounded to over NT$20 million.

幾年前同學會曾邀請謝教授來分享心得，
雖然他的結論是股票都不用賣，
好公司的股價股市總有一天會給予應有公道。
可是我們在旁邊聽覺得其實他的績效可以更好，
而且不用面對這麼大的煎熬。

A few years ago, the Alumni Association invited Professor Sie to share his investment experience. While he concluded that there was no need to sell stocks and that the stock price of a good company will eventually reflect its value, I believe that his performance could have been better and that he could have avoided such significant losses.

2008次貸風暴最嚴重的時刻，
他們幾位同學在台北火車站前有個小聚會，
那時的氣氛是風蕭蕭兮，易水寒。
儘管同學都在呼口號「我們是勇敢的巴菲特信徒，
不會害怕金融風暴！」
大夥勉強擠出笑容，但看得出來嘴角仍在微微地顫抖。

During the worst period of the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, a small group of students gathered in front of Taipei Railway Station, but the atmosphere was bleak. Although they chanted slogans like "We are courageous followers of Buffett, and we are not afraid of financial crises!", their smiles were forced and the corners of their mouths trembled slightly.

謝教授說，他是自有資金，閒置資金，被套牢幾年無所謂，
可是如果老婆在旁邊應該會嘮叨個幾句，
試想一個家庭資產從2000變700，老婆會不會唸個沒完呢？
投資的目的是要來改善生活，而非讓家庭陷入危機。

Professor Sie stated that he invested with his idle funds and didn't mind being trapped for several years. However, if his wife was with him, she would nag about their family's assets dropping from NT$20 million to NT$7 million. The goal of investing is to enhance one's life, not to put the family in financial distress.

經過這次經驗，要懂得記取教訓。
怎麼做？很簡單，
只要遵守GDP理論在2007年9,800減碼下來，
賣個1/3就好，
即便碰到金融風暴資產縮水只會縮水到1,200萬，
比縮到700萬好很多。

We must learn from this experience and take it as a lesson. How can we do that? It's very simple. Just follow the GDP Theory and reduce your holdings by 1/3 when it reaches 9,800 in 2007. Even during a financial crisis, your assets will only shrink to NT$12 million, which is much better than shrinking to NT$7 million.

1/3減碼下來的錢等低點4,000點再加碼回來，
幫他算過，現在資產將是3,000萬元，
較2,000萬賺得更多 ! !

One can add back 1/3 of the reduced amount when the stock price drops by 4,000 points. By following this strategy, the net assets can reach NT$30 million, which is more than the current net assets of NT$20 million.

有人問，若賣錯了，指數漲到3萬點？
沒關係，仍有2/3的股票跟著上去，還是最大赢家。
不用擔心我的方法不會掉到最壞的結果。

Someone asked, "What if he sells at the wrong time and the index rises to 30,000 points?"
It doesn't matter because he still has 2/3 of his holdings, and he will still be the biggest winner.
There is no need to worry that this method will lead to the worst possible outcome.

另一位傑出校友是Ray同學，就是陳宥聰，美股投資班老師。
他接受今周訪問表示，2008年買鴻海在50幾元，
台塑、台化在40多元，都買在不可思議的低點，
正是遵守GDP理論的成果。

Another outstanding alumnus is Ray, also known as Joe, the teacher of the US stock investment course. In an interview with Business Today magazine, he mentioned buying Hon Hai for NT$50 in 2008, as well as Formosa Plastics and Formosa Chemicals for more than NT$40, all at incredibly low prices. He attributed his success to following the GDP Theory.

宥聰桑是本班的傳奇人物，
他的出身同我們一樣是上班族，
結婚之後和老婆買了一間房出租當包租公。
他說當房東有些瑣事有點討厭，
房客三更半夜忘了帶鑰匙會來敲門。
來上課時我跟他說，股票是比房地產更好的投資工具，
因買賣方便，
房子要賣時很不好賣，比如現在就很不好賣。
而且房子會漲，股票更會漲，
我買中碳8年賺6倍，房子不可能如此。

Joe is a legendary figure in our class. Like us, he works as an office worker. After he got married, he and his wife bought a house to rent out as a landlord. He mentioned that being a landlord can be annoying, especially when tenants forget their keys and knock on the door in the middle of the night. During class, I told him that stocks are a better investment tool than real estate because they are more convenient to trade. Houses are difficult to sell, as evidenced by the current market. Furthermore, if housing prices increase, stock prices are likely to follow suit. I personally invested in China Steel Chemical for 8 years and made 6 times the profit, something that is unlikely to be achieved through owning a rental property.

他聽進去了，甚至把房子賣掉專心做買股票，
一開始買台股，又去投資美股。
他的英文很爛，單字不會唸只會拼。
他跟我說A-P-P-L-E不錯，
想了一下才會意，I have a pen. I have an apple...

He listened to my advice and even sold his rental property to focus on buying stocks. He started by investing in Taiwan stocks and then expanded to US stocks. Despite his poor English pronunciation, he is able to spell words. He once told me that A-P-P-L-E is a good investment, and it took me a few seconds to understand the reference to the popular "pen-pineapple-apple-pen" meme.

英文這麼爛的人現在美股玩得非常厲害，
看他的美股入圍名單，有一些小公司AZN、AZO、BLL，
基本面如何都搞得一清二楚。
美股退稅密密麻麻全英文哪一格要填什麼都知道。
宥聰桑2008年也買高盛50元，老巴買在115元，
所以誰才是股神？

Despite his poor English skills, he has achieved great success with his US stock investments. When looking at his portfolio of US stocks, he holds shares in several smaller companies such as AZN, AZO, and BLL, and he has a solid understanding of their fundamentals. He is even able to navigate the US stock tax refund application form, which is in English, and fill it out correctly.
In 2008, Joe purchased shares of Goldman Sachs (GS) for $50, while Mr. Buffett bought it for $115. It's hard to say who the true stock guru is in this case.

宥聰桑2012年突然跟我說，他們家要移民澳洲，
我一聽心裡直想笑「英文這麼差的人也想移民澳洲！」
他說，他兩個小孩都逐漸長大，
將來若要留美每人花費1,000萬台幣。
與其這樣2,000萬就花掉了，倒不如去投資移民澳洲，
當時澳洲投資移民門檻只要2,300萬元台幣
買它政府公債就能取得資格。
隔年提高到1億2，所以他就趕快送件。

In 2012, Joe surprised me by announcing that his family would be immigrating to Australia. I couldn't help but snicker at his announcement, given his less-than-fluent English skills. However, he explained that as his two children grew older, the cost of sending them to study in the US would be around NT$10 million per person. Rather than spend NT$20 million in this way, he decided it would be more financially viable to invest in Australia and obtain an investment immigration visa. At that time, the investment threshold for an Australian visa was only NT$23 million, which could be achieved by purchasing government bonds. The following year, the threshold increased to NT$120 million, so he applied for the visa as soon as possible.

移民官面談時問他如何做投資？
他答「就是要高ROE，低盈再率。」
還跟移民官解釋何謂盈再率。
我跟宥聰講「記得提醒移民官，
還是要來上課，才能得到真傳。」

During the immigration interview, the officer asked him about his investment strategies. He replied, "I aim for high ROE and low PR%." He even explained to the immigration officer what PR% meant. I reminded Joe to tell the officer that he still needed to attend classes to learn more investment skills.

他們家就移民澳洲了。最傳奇是，
在移民澳洲之前，他們家沒有人去過。
我們都以為要到一個國家移民之前，
至少應先到當地玩過一趟，覺得環境不錯才會過去，
孰料沒去過就移民了，
所以我認為他們家很適合移民火星，
沒人去過的地方都敢去。

After that, his family successfully immigrated to Australia. What shocked us the most was that they had never visited Australia before their immigration. Most of us believe that before immigrating to a new country, one should at least visit once to assess whether the environment is suitable. Thus, I think his family is brave enough to immigrate to Mars, where no one has gone before.

宥聰桑曾很感慨地說，他們是一般家庭，
因加入巴菲特班，居然可以移民澳洲。

Joe once expressed with emotion that his family is an ordinary family. However, thanks to joining this lecture, he was able to immigrate to Australia.

我們巴菲特班專門在創造奇蹟，
我故意找英文很爛的人來教大家投資美股，
證明玩美股不用懂英文，只要會按盈再表即可。

Our Buffett class specializes in creating miracles. I purposely recruit people with poor English to teach everyone how to invest in US stocks. This proves that you don't need to understand English to play the US stock market, as long as you look up On's table.

本班第三位傑出校友是凱元，他是離投資最遠的人。
他說他高職畢業，可是高職怎麼唸出來的？
就是「起立，敬禮，老師好！」之後就趴下去睡覺。
看他在討論區寫的貼文錯字連篇，
我懷疑他趴下去睡覺應該不是從高職開始，而是國小。

The third outstanding alumnus of our class is Kaiyuen, who had the least investment knowledge at the beginning. He mentioned that he graduated from a vocational school, but it's hard to believe considering his lack of effort. He even joked that his usual routine in class was to stand up, salute, say "good morning, teacher!" and then sleep on the table. Judging from the numerous typos in his discussion posts, I suspect that he didn't graduate from a senior vocational school but perhaps an elementary school.

凱元雖然離投資最遠可是績效卻最好，
我美股自認為績效不錯了，他比我還好，因少踩到幾支地雷。

Although Kaiyuen is the least experienced in investment, he has achieved the best performance in the US stock market. He has been more successful than me because he rarely makes mistakes.

凱元2012年也跟我們去開戶買美股。
我很驚訝，懷疑他英文字母能否從A唸到Z？
他說「可以呀！」「A、Z。」
完全不懂英文的人現在投資全世界。
凱元三不五時會打電話報我明牌，而且是美股的明牌。
有一次他說「BLL很不錯」，BLL就是可口可樂鋁罐包裝工廠，
他說它的客戶有哪些，工廠在什麼地方。
我很吃驚問他怎麼知道這麼多？
他說到BLL官網看過，
我更駭然「官網不都是英文字嗎？」
他狀似輕鬆答「對啊！Google有翻譯呀，雖然翻得離離落落。」
巴菲特班偉大之處，把一個鐵工廠的銑床技師改造成國際投資家。

Kaiyuan opened a US stock investment account with us in 2012, despite having no prior investment experience. I was initially skeptical, wondering if he could even read the English alphabet from A to Z. To my surprise, he replied confidently, "A, Z." It is amazing to see people who do not know English at all invest in the global market. Kaiyuan would call me from time to time to share his stock recommendations. He once recommended BLL, a Coca-Cola aluminum can packaging plant, and even knew the company's customers and factory locations. When I asked him how he knew so much, he simply replied that he had checked the official BLL website, even though it was all in English. He used Google Translate, although he acknowledged that the translations were sometimes rough.
The greatness of the Buffett class lies in its ability to transform blue-collar workers, such as milling machine technicians in iron factories, into successful international investors.

講稿 16/21 全世界都成立
Lecture 16/21 Globally applicable

GDP年增率為何跟指數有關？
GDP是國內生產毛額，什麼是毛額？
扣掉成本之前的東西叫毛額，扣掉之後為毛利，
營收減成本為毛利。
GDP就是營收！
台灣的GDP就是台灣的營收。

How is the annual GDP growth rate related to the index? GDP refers to gross domestic product, but what does "gross" mean? "Gross" refers to the amount before deductions of cost, while "gross profit" refers to the amount after deductions. In other words, gross profit is equal to sales minus costs. Therefore, GDP can be seen as equivalent to sales. For instance, Taiwan's GDP is essentially Taiwan's sales.

GDP年增率跟指數有關，意即營收年增率和股價有關，
這是大家早就知道的觀念，
買個股投資人都在追蹤營收，因為營收大幅成長股價會漲，
這是必然的定律，不會因每個人都知道而不靈。
有人買股票都在追蹤營收，卻轉過頭來說他不相信GDP理論，
實在很奇怪，個股就相信，整個加起來卻不相信。

The annual growth rate of GDP is closely tied to the index, which indicates that the annual growth rate of sales is correlated with stock prices. This idea is widely accepted among investors, who monitor sales as a key indicator for potential stock price increases. This concept is considered an absolute law as it is widely recognized. However, there are some students who track sales but do not believe in the GDP Theory. They may have faith in a particular stock, but not in the concept as a whole.

或者這樣問大家：股價跟景氣有關，對不對？
眾人皆點頭。
再問：什麼是景氣？
不就是GDP嗎！
若問這幾年景氣如何？你會怎麼答？
夏天溫度38度，還是GDP年增率不到2%！

Let's pose a question to everyone: are stock prices influenced by business cycles? Most people would agree with this statement. Next, let's ask, what exactly is a business cycle? Is it not synonymous with GDP? If we consider the current state of the economy over the past few years, how would we respond? Would we say that the economy is experiencing a summer temperature of 38 degrees, or would we say that the annual GDP growth rate is less than 2%?

GDP年增率A國從10%降到8%，
B國由-10%變-8%，
請問哪一國的股市會漲？  
B
再問：哪一國的經濟好？  
A
經濟不好的國家股市反而漲，為什麼？
因為不會更壞股價就漲，B國股市會漲因經濟不再更壞。
相反的，沒更好股價即作頭，A國股市會跌。

股市不是經濟變好才漲，
而是不會更壞就開始漲。

The annual GDP growth rate of Country A decreased from 10% to 8%, while Country B went from -10% to -8%. Which country's stock market is expected to rise? Country B's stock market is likely to rise.

Now, let's consider which country has a good economy. Country A has a stronger economy than Country B despite its decrease in the annual GDP growth rate.

Moreover, it is common for stock markets in countries with poor economies to rise. This can be explained by the fact that stock prices tend to rise when the economy is not expected to worsen any further. As such, the stock market in Country B will increase because its economy is projected to stop deteriorating. Conversely, if the economy of Country A is not expected to improve any further, its stock market will likely fall.

Therefore, the stock market does not necessarily increase solely because the economy is booming. Rather, it may rise because the economy is projected to maintain its current state.

以上也是一般人誤解GDP是股價落後指標的原因，
當GDP由最低往上走時，如-10%變-8%，股價就開始漲了，
可是 -8%，大家還是覺得景氣很糟，
等到GDP轉成+3%才感覺出景氣好轉，
而股價早已漲一大段了。

The aforementioned also explains why most people mistakenly believe that GDP is a lagging indicator of stock prices. When GDP increases from its lowest point, such as from -10% to -8%, stock prices begin to rise. However, even at -8%, many still believe the economy to be weak. By the time GDP has increased to +3%, which is typically when people begin to feel that the economy is improving, the stock market has already been rising for some time.

底下是上證指數跟中國GDP年增率對照圖，蠻相關的。
上海股市從2007年到2013年走了6年的大空頭，
看這張圖我一直在想可否避掉此段空頭？
當然可以。
2007年上證漲到6,000點時同學曾問我看法？
當時按中股盈再表發現多數股票都太貴，
賣掉即可避掉後來的急跌。
知道中國GDP年增率越來越低，
又可躲過漫長的盤跌。
貴了和GDP理論可以逃過這6年的大空頭。

The following chart is a comparison between the Shanghai Index and China's annual GDP growth rate, which demonstrates a strong correlation. From 2007 to 2013, the Shanghai stock market underwent six years of bearish activity. Upon examining this chart, one might ask whether it is possible to avoid such a market downturn. The answer is yes. In 2007, when the Shanghai Index reached 6,000, some students asked for my opinion. According to On's table, the majority of Chinese stocks were too expensive at that time. By selling at this point, one could have avoided the subsequent market crash. Furthermore, being aware of the declining trend in China's annual GDP growth rate could have helped investors avoid long-term market declines. The warning signals provided by On's table and the GDP Theory could have aided investors in escaping the six-year bear market.

2015年上海股市飆漲到5,000點，
原以為中股便宜，
因銀行股、石油股和一些國企股相當便宜。
當時kaka同學一直在討論區貼其它個股的盈再表，
一支比一支貴，
我吃驚脫口說出「中股貴了，應當減碼！」
剛好喊在5,000點的高點。

In 2015, the Shanghai stock market surged to 5,000 points, and I believed that Chinese stocks were cheap. This was because bank stocks, oil stocks, and several state-owned enterprise stocks were quite cheap. However, Mr. Kaka had been posting On's tables of other stocks on the discussion forum, and I was taken aback by the prices. Some stocks were more expensive than others, and I exclaimed, "Chinese stocks are costly and should be underweighted!" I made this statement at the peak of 5,000.

兩次都抓到中股的高點，
顯示我們的方法不只對一次，
只要股價貴了盈再表都會忠實呈現。
而且不僅台股適用，放諸四海皆準。

Capturing the peak of the Chinese stock market twice shows that our method is not just a one-time success. Whenever stock prices are expensive, On's table will faithfully present the data, and this method is not only applicable to the Taiwanese stock market, but to all markets worldwide.

GDP理論全世界都成立，
底下是各國GDP年增率和指數圖，它們都相關。

The GDP Theory is applicable globally, as evidenced by the correlation between the annual GDP growth rates and stock market indices of various countries, as shown in the chart below.

台灣 Taiwan
https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/gdp-growth-annual

美國 US

香港 Hong Kong

中國 China

日本 Japan

德國 Germany

英國 UK

美國、日本、新加坡、歐洲等國的GDP成長率
喜歡公布QoQ的數字，QoQ跟指數無關，
要YoY才有關。
一些記者不知這兩者的區別，有時候會誤植，
看國外GDP成長率報導時須核對其數字係YoY或QoQ，
YoY跟指數才有關。

The GDP growth rates of the US, Japan, Singapore, Europe, and other countries are often reported in QoQ figures, which have no correlation with the index. The relevant figure is YoY. Unfortunately, some reporters are unaware of the distinction and make mistakes. When reading reports on foreign GDP growth rates, it is essential to verify whether the numbers are YoY or QoQ. Only YoY figures have a relationship with the index.

全世界的經濟與股市都是以美國為火車頭，
因為美國的GDP最大。
我們每天一大早起床第一件事情在幹嘛呢？
看美股收盤，為何如此重視？
因受美股影響大。
底下是台股指數和道瓊指數圖，兩者密切相關。
有時候會差距3個月，
2008年台股與中股先落底，9月落底，
美股到隔年3月觸底，因次貸危機美國是震央。
基本上台美股同步，有時會落差3個月，誰先誰後不一定。

The world economy and stock market closely follow the United States, which is considered a locomotive due to its large GDP. Checking the closing price of the US stock market is often the first thing people do every morning, as it holds a significant impact. The chart below shows the correlation between the Taiwan Stock Index and Dow Jones Index, although there can sometimes be a three-month delay. In 2008, the Taiwan and Chinese stock markets were the first two to reach the bottom in September, while the US market was hit hard by the subprime mortgage crisis and was late to bottom out in March of the following year. Generally, the Taiwan and US stock markets are synchronized, but sometimes there can be a lag of up to three months.

台股指數與日經指數也相關，
日本經濟失落了20年仍然跟台股同步。

The Taiwan Stock Index and the Nikkei Index are also interconnected, with the Japanese economy having stagnated for the past 20 years but still maintaining pace with Taiwan's stocks.

台股和香港恆生指數，一樣相關。

The Taiwan stock market is closely linked to the Hong Kong Hang Seng Index.

台股與上海股市大體上相關。

There is a general correlation between Taiwan stocks and the Shanghai stock market.

投資全世界這麼多國家，我只看台灣GDP，只注意主計處的預估
用它去推估美國的GDP，因為我們的主要出口市場是美國。
以前葛林斯班也搜集台灣電子股每月公告的營收
來當作研判美國景氣的先行指標。
另外聽會看衰自己業績的公司，
如這次大立光就誠實指出手機業者景氣都看得很差，
果然4Q22台灣GDP急轉直下。
我不看其它機構的預估，不相信永遠只看多的公司，不聽投信和分析師預測

When making investments worldwide, I concentrate on Taiwan's GDP and carefully monitor the projections provided by the DGBAS. This enables me to estimate the GDP of the US, which is our primary export destination. In the past, Greenspan also collected monthly revenue announcements from Taiwan's electronics companies to use as a leading indicator for the US economy. Additionally, I focus on companies that are honest about their own performance and would express a pessimistic outlook, like the recent announcement from Largan Precision regarding the weak prospects for the mobile industry, which was followed by a significant decline in Taiwan's GDP in 4Q22. I don't rely on the estimates of other institutions, and I don't solely trust bullish companies, nor do I listen to predictions from fund managers and analysts.

各國GDP去哪裡查？
盈再表上附有該國GDP。

Where can one check the GDP of each country? The country's GDP is listed in On's table.

台灣GDP點進去，先到巴菲特班部落格，
有2個東西：歷史資料跟預估值。

Click on Taiwan's GDP and it will take you to my blog where you can find two things: historical data and estimated values.

查歷史資料點入到主計處網頁，有3欄，
第一欄日期從何時到何時，點、下拉，
第二欄按經濟成長率(%)，
第三欄選原始值，勿點年增率因是空的，原始值才有年增率。
再點選「繼續」，即跑出歷年各季GDP年增率數字。

To check the historical data, click on the webpage of DGBAS, where you will find 3 columns. In the first column, select the time range by clicking and pulling down. The second column displays the economic growth rate (%) while the third column displays the original value. Be sure to select the original value and not the annual growth rate, which is empty. Click "Continue" to access the annual GDP growth figures for each quarter over the years.

查主計處預估值，點進之後選「常用資料」，
出現Excel檔案，開啟舊檔，選底下資料頁，
經濟成長欄最底下為主計處的預估值。

To check the estimated value provided by DGBAS, click and select "Frequently Used Data". An Excel file will appear, and you should open the old file and select the data sheet below. The estimated value of DGBAS can be found at the bottom of the economic growth column.

主計處的預估通常不準，
估不準很正常，做過預估的人都知道，
我當分析師時預估電子公司EPS從來沒準過。

DGBAS's estimates are often inaccurate, but such inaccuracies are normal. Anyone who has made estimates knows that there is always some degree of uncertainty involved. As an analyst, I was never able to accurately estimate the EPS of electronics companies.

主計處的預估是主要參考，非唯一參考，
我們還會用YoY輔助判斷。

The estimates provided by DGBAS are the main reference, but not the only reference. We will also use YoY (Year-over-Year) data to aid in our judgment.

預估越接近就越準，不必太早追問未來哪一季高或低，
因投資是到了低點或高點才會買或賣，等到接近時就明瞭。

The closer the estimate is, the more accurate it tends to be. It is not necessary to predict whether a particular season will have high or low GDP too far in advance. Such trends become clearer as the time approaches.

台股盈再表底下附上GDP圖，
tradingeconomics.com提供總經資料可以畫圖，
對研究總經有興趣的同學可充分利用。

A GDP chart is attached at the bottom of On's table. Macro-economic data can be obtained from tradingeconomics.com, where students interested in studying macroeconomics can make full use of the resources available.

https://tradingeconomics.com/taiwan/gdp-growth-annual

美國GDP按美股盈再表GDP，跑到國家統計局網站，
第一列Gross domestic product 即GDP年增率，
年限只有3年，按上方Modify鍵即可加長。

The U.S. GDP is attached on the US stocks sheet of On's table. Click on the National Bureau of Statistics website to access it. The first column, "Gross Domestic Product," displays the annual GDP growth rate, which covers a period of only 3 years. To access earlier data, click the "Modify" button located above the column.

美股指數和GDP年增率相關：
2014年美國GDP往上走，道瓊上漲；
2015年GDP年增率下滑，道瓊疲弱；
2016年GDP又往上，道瓊大漲。

There is a relationship between the US stock index and the annual GDP growth rate. For instance, in 2014, the US GDP increased, and the Dow Jones index rose accordingly. However, in 2015, the annual GDP growth rate declined, and the Dow Jones index weakened. In 2016, when GDP rose again, the Dow Jones index surged once more.

查其它國家GDP，到全球盈再表，
A1格輸入國碼，國碼在右邊可查到49國碼，
德國即DE，
輸入之後直接點底下GDP格，
即出現德國GDP年增率圖。

To check the GDP of other countries, navigate to the global sheet of On's table. Enter the country code into cell A1. The 49 country codes are located on the right side of the sheet. For instance, Germany's country code is DE. After entering the country code, click on the GDP button located below. A chart displaying the annual growth rate of German GDP will appear.

做投資除了會選股之外，仍需明白總體經濟的變化，
因為無時無刻受到影響。
總經知識透過個股觀念來了解比較容易入門，
GDP＝營收    
鈔票＝股票        
匯率＝股價      
利率＝股息

In addition to selecting stocks, it is crucial to comprehend the fluctuations in the overall economy since it is continuously impacted. Familiarizing oneself with macroeconomics through the concept of individual stocks can make it easier to begin.
GDP = sales
Banknote = stock
Exchange rate = stock price
Interest rate = dividend

GDP年增率差 ，匯率貶，如同公司營收衰退，股價就會跌。
支撐匯率將導致利率上升，若要支撐股價，就須高配息。

A decrease in the annual GDP growth rate can cause the exchange rate to depreciate, just as a decline in a company's sales can result in a drop in its stock prices.
Supporting the exchange rate can lead to an increase in interest rates, just as supporting stock prices may require high dividends.

2014年下半年俄國盧布大貶，
盧布匯率原本跟台幣差不多，1 美元兌30元盧布。
近年因油價下跌，以原油為出口大宗的俄國經濟受到重創，
盧布狂貶到68。
為支撐盧布，俄國把利率從10.5%一口氣升到17%，
盧布立即反彈到51。

In the latter half of 2014, the Russian ruble experienced a significant depreciation. Initially, the ruble had a similar exchange rate to the Taiwan dollar, with 1 U.S. dollar equivalent to 30 rubles. However, in recent years, the Russian economy, which heavily relies on crude oil exports, suffered a severe blow due to the drop in oil prices. As a result, the ruble depreciated to 68. To stabilize the ruble, Russia increased its interest rates from 10.5% to 17% in a single move. Following this measure, the ruble quickly rebounded to 51.

2015年油價續跌，2016年2月甚至跌到26美元一桶，
俄國盧布貶到新低81元。

In 2015, the price of oil continued to decline and reached a low of $26 per barrel in February 2016. Consequently, the Russian ruble also plummeted to a new low of 81.

俄國盧布、巴西里耳、英鎊近幾年都狂貶逾5成，
讓我心生警惕，更加確信投資美股的重要性，
試想哪天盧布貶值的噩夢在台幣重演，
一夕之間財富蒸發掉6成，很可怕的。

Over the past few years, the Russian ruble, Brazilian real, and British pound have all experienced a depreciation of over 50%. This fact has made me more vigilant and reinforced my belief in the importance of investing in US stocks. It's easy to imagine a situation where the nightmare of a currency devaluation repeats itself in Taiwan. If that were to happen overnight, 60% of people's wealth would evaporate, which would be catastrophic.

1997年亞洲金融風暴提供了一個很好學習總經的教材，
一開始東南亞各國因外資撤離而貨幣競貶，
經濟大幅衰退，香港因相鄰也受到打擊。
經濟不佳，貨幣理當貶值，
可是港幣卻因聯繫匯率無法貶值，
香港作為國際金融中心，為求穩定港幣一直與美元掛勾。

The 1997 Asian financial crisis served as a valuable textbook for studying macroeconomics. Initially, the currencies of Southeast Asian countries depreciated due to the withdrawal of foreign capital. This led to a sharp economic decline, which also impacted Hong Kong due to its proximity to the affected countries.

During an economic downturn, currency depreciation is often seen as a natural outcome. However, the Hong Kong dollar was unable to depreciate due to its linked exchange rate. As an international financial center, the Hong Kong dollar has been pegged to the US dollar for stability.

港幣當貶而不貶，導至利率上升，隔夜拆款利率飆漲到300％，
隔夜拆款利率即銀行間借款利率，
恆生指數由1萬5000多點暴跌到6,000多點。

The Hong Kong dollar should have depreciated but did not, causing interest rates to rise. As a result, the overnight interbank call-loan rate soared to 300%, and the Hang Seng Index fell from 15,000 to over 6,000.

索羅斯看到這個矛盾現象進來套利，
同時空港幣跟指數期貨，
他不是要兩頭賺而是要賺一邊，
因總有一端會成立，港幣貶或股市大跌。
從理論上推演必然成立，這是一個如意算盤。

Soros took advantage of this contradiction by shorting Hong Kong dollar and index futures. He was not trying to profit from both sides, but rather to profit from one side. Eventually, one end of the scenario would prove to be true, either the Hong Kong dollar would depreciate or the stock market would experience a sharp decline. Theoretically speaking, this strategy was bound to succeed, and was seen as a perfect calculation.

想不到香港政府動用1,181億元港幣的外匯存底來護盤，
買進恆生指數30檔成分股，
把指數從6,000多點硬拉到 1 萬5,000點，
導致港幣未貶，股市也沒跌，
索羅斯兩邊都沒賺到倖然離場。

To everyone's surprise, the Hong Kong government utilized HK$118.1 billion from their foreign exchange reserves to protect the market by purchasing 30 Hang Seng Index stocks. This move caused the index to rise from 6,000 to 15,000. As a result, the Hong Kong dollar did not depreciate, and the stock market did not experience a sharp decline. Soros was not able to achieve his goal of profiting from both outcomes and eventually withdrew from the game.

動用外匯存底來護盤是危險的做法，
因為外匯存底不是政府的錢，
它是國人做貿易賺到的錢，以及外國人到本地投資的錢，
它就像到遊樂場去玩換成代幣的錢。
代幣之所以有價值因有等值的錢做兌換，
若把外幣再換成代幣，代幣將失去價值。

Utilizing foreign exchange reserves to protect the market is a dangerous practice, as these reserves do not belong to the government. Instead, they are earned by the people through trade or investments made by foreign entities in the local economy. In a sense, it is like playing a game with tokens at an amusement park. These tokens have value because they are guaranteed by equivalent reserved currencies. If the reserved currencies are exchanged for tokens, the tokens will lose their value.

港府深知此非長久之計，
事情過後趕緊把所買的成分股去設了一個盈富基金，
供市民認購，套回現金。

The Hong Kong government was aware that this was not a sustainable solution. After the crisis, it promptly established a Tracker Fund of Hong Kong (2800.HK), which included the constituent stocks it had purchased. The fund was made available for public subscription to allow for cash to be put back into the reserve.

上述過程是學習總經很好的教材，
可以了解GDP、匯率、利率、股市、外匯存底的相互關係。

The aforementioned process serves as an excellent example for studying macroeconomics, allowing for a better understanding of the interplay between GDP, exchange rates, interest rates, stock markets, and foreign exchange reserves.

2011年的人民幣的狀況跟1997年港幣剛好相反，
當年中國經濟繁榮，人民幣理當升值，
可是人民幣一直抗拒升值，
中國作為世界工廠，希望生產要素價格儘量便宜。
貨幣應升值而未升，利率被壓低，造成通貨膨脹嚴重。

The exchange rate of the RMB in 2011 was the complete opposite of the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar in 1997. During a period of economic growth, the renminbi should appreciate, yet it has remained resistant to appreciation. As the world's manufacturing hub, China strives to maintain low prices for production factors. Therefore, while the currency should appreciate, it cannot, resulting in depressed interest rates and a surge in inflation.

要控制通膨，簡單之道即讓匯率升值，
當時很多外資打賭人民幣將大幅升值，
可是中共卻用另一種方式因應，全民調薪，
12五計畫讓人民普遍調薪 1 倍，
這樣即感覺不出通膨的痛苦。
在廣東的外商像富士康、台達都被逼調薪，
富士康在調薪之後就把工廠搬到河南去了。
看到中國全面調薪時，投資人應當心裡有數，
人民幣大幅升值的空間不大了。

The simplest way to control inflation is to allow the exchange rate to appreciate. Many foreign investors at the time believed that the Renminbi would appreciate significantly. However, Chinese authorities responded differently by adjusting national salaries as part of the 12th Five-Year Plan, allowing people to double their salaries. This eased the pain of inflation. Foreign employers in Guangdong, such as Foxconn and Delta Electronics, were also forced to adjust their salaries. As a result, Foxconn relocated its factory to Henan after the salary adjustment. Investors should note that with China's overall salary adjustment, there is not much room for a substantial appreciation of the Renminbi.

大家較關心現在總體經濟如何？
當前大事是美國在升息，
美國不僅升一次息而已，而是要利率正常化，
在未來3年內把利率從0%拉到3%正常水準，
因為利率長期處在這麼低的水準有副作用：
1. 熱錢到處流竄將導至資源配置錯誤
2. 令賴利息維生者無法生存，如退休金、銀行、投資業者，
3. 一旦未來又發生金融危機時Fed將無可利用工具。

Everyone is more concerned about the current overall economy.
The current major issue is the US raising interest rates.
The US is not only raising interest rates once, but also normalizing interest rates.
In the next three years, interest rates will be raised from the normal level of 0% to 3%.
There are side effects when interest rates remain at such a low level for a long time:
1. Hot money flowing everywhere will lead to resource allocation errors.
2. It will make it impossible for those who depend on interest income to survive, such as pensions, banks, and investment companies.
3. Once there is another financial crisis in the future, the Fed will have no tools to use.

隨著景氣回升將進入升息階段，
升息對金融業利弊參半，
利多：利差擴大將增加利息收入
利空：債券投資虧損加重，小銀行容易發生擠兌

Aligned with the economic recovery, we are poised to enter a period of interest rate hikes. The effects of these hikes on the financial industry are twofold.
On the positive side, the broadening interest rate spreads will augment interest income.
Conversely, the negative aspect involves exacerbated losses in bond investments, particularly affecting smaller banks that are susceptible to runs.

金融業持有大量債券，
升息導致債券價格下跌，
雖然會計法允許債券的價格波動
在持有到期之前不計入損益，
可是存戶會擔憂小銀行不堪虧損而擠兌。
銀行擠兌存戶僅損失利息可拿回完整本金，
損失不大致擠兌力度最強。
如2023年即發生SIVB、FRC、CS等銀行連環倒閉。

保險公司則不易出現擠兌，
因保單解約需自承所有價差與利息損失，
會再三考量是否解約。

The financial sector holds a substantial amount of bonds. Increases in interest rates result in a drop in bond prices. Even though accounting standards allow for bonds' price fluctuations not to be recognized as gains or losses until maturity, depositors are concerned that smaller banks may struggle with these losses and therefore initiate a run. During a bank run, depositors might lose only the interest but can recover the entire principal. The losses are relatively minor, which amplifies the intensity of the run. For instance, in 2023, there was a sequence of bank failures like SIV Financial Group (SIVB), First Republic Bank (FRC), Signature Bank (SBNY) and Credit Suisse (CS), further aggravating the situation.

On the other hand, insurance companies are less prone to runs. When policyholders cancel their policies, they bear all the price differences and interest losses, prompting careful consideration before cancellation.

以上為投資人必備的總經知識。
若對上述總經的推演完全不能理解，
就忘記它，當我沒講過！
經濟學是很有趣的學科，
可是10個經濟學家推演出來會有12種結果。
面對2008年的通貨緊縮，美國主張印鈔，
歐洲則強調撙節，藥方截然不同，而且還都有效。

The above is essential macroeconomic knowledge for investors. If you find the above macroeconomic inferences difficult to understand, don't worry and just ignore them.Economics is an interesting subject, and even among 10 economists, there can be 12 different conclusions.
For instance, when faced with deflation in 2008, American experts advocated for printing money, while Europe emphasized austerity policies.
Both approaches were effective, despite their completely different prescriptions.

不懂經濟沒關係，跟著GDP理論按表操課加減碼即可。
請記住，我們是幼幼班，不會分析，也不要分析。

It's okay if you don't understand economics; simply follow the GDP theory and adjust your holdings as needed. Remember, we are beginners—no analysis is necessary, nor expected.

所有總經指標只有GDP年增率跟股價相關，
其他則無必然關係。
原料股看GDP，
原料股亦稱景氣循環股，
包括塑化、金銀銅鐵紙肥料輪胎及散裝輪，
景氣復甦工業生產需求增加，
這些原料需求都上升。

Among all macroeconomic indicators, only the annual GDP growth rate shows a direct relationship with stock prices; the others do not have a clear correlation. The prices of raw materials tend to follow GDP trends. Raw material stocks, often referred to as cyclical stocks, encompass sectors such as petrochemicals, gold, silver, copper, iron, paper, fertilizers, tires, and bulk shipping. As the economy recovers, the demand for industrial production rises, leading to an increased demand for these materials.

金融股也是看GDP。
利率跟金融股漲跌關係不大，
參見下圖，謝謝牛大維桑提供

Financial stocks are also influenced by GDP. The relationship between interest rates and fluctuations in financial stocks is relatively insignificant. Please refer to the chart below, with special thanks to pinkdavid for providing it.

利率跟大盤關係也不大

The relationship between interest rates and the overall market is also not significant.

https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/interest-rate#


利率與大盤的關聯性不大，
可惜這一點鮮為投資專家與媒體所知。
沒必要放太多精力在央行的動向上。

The connection between interest rates and the broader market is minimal. Unfortunately, this is little known among investment experts and the media. There’s no need to focus too much attention on central bank movements.

投資中許多想當然爾的觀念是錯誤的：

Many taken-for-granted concepts in investing are wrong：

有人拿M1b這個指標來看大盤，
中央銀行發行在外鈔票總額是M2，
M1b是M2減掉定存，
定存是被鎖起來的錢，
M1b是比較流通在外的錢。
這個指標常被引為股市潛在動能，
因流通在外的錢多了即容易流進股市。

Some people use M1b as an indicator to monitor the market. The total number of banknotes issued by the central bank is M2. M1b is calculated as M2 minus time deposits that are locked in circulation. M1b represents currency in circulation and is often used as a potential momentum indicator for the stock market. If there is too much currency in circulation, it may flow into the stock market.

用M1b來操作大盤績效會不會更好？
設定M1b年增率最低時買進，最高時賣出。
第一次買在5,600點，之後跌到3,411被斷頭。
6,888點賣出，後來漲到9,598，賣太早了會去撞牆。

Would it be better to use M1b to time the market?
Set a buy signal for M1b when it reaches the lowest annual growth rate and sell when it reaches the highest rate.
Suppose you bought in at an index of 5,600 points, but it dropped to 3,411 points, resulting in a loss of half of your investment and a margin call.
Later, you sold at 6,888 points, only to see the index rise to 9,598 points. You felt frustrated because you sold too early.

第二次買在7,400點，後來崩盤跌到3,955被斷頭兩次。
賣祖產繳了保證金卻在7,300就賣掉，
賠錢出場後眼睜睜看它漲到9,221。

You bought the second time at 7,400 points, but it eventually fell to 3,955 points, causing another margin call. You sold your ancestral property to meet the margin requirement and later sold the stock at 7,300, resulting in a loss. You had to watch helplessly as the stock rose to 9,221.

這兩次根據M1b操作大盤績效其差無比，
別再提這個指標了。

These two transactions have performed very poorly based on M1b. Please do not mention this indicator to me again.

也有人看景氣對策信號燈，
它是由9個變數組成，其中包含了股價指數，
拿它來跟指數對照，這犯了一個錯，
用自己來預測自己，是沒意義的事。
更慘的是，竟然不如GDP理論準！

Some people rely on economic monitoring indicators that include 9 variables, including the stock price index. However, using this indicator to compare with the index can lead to errors. It is redundant to use the same indicator to predict itself.
Even worse, it is not as accurate as GDP Theory!

M1b和景氣對策信號燈都是沒用的指標。
同學，把不對的東西扔掉，才能找到對的方法。

Both M1b and economic monitoring indicators are useless. Discarding the wrong things can help you find the right path.

景氣對策訊號燈用自己來預測自己，無意義

Economic monitoring indicator is meaningless

mikeon 發表於 2012-1-26 21:22

法人喜歡用景氣對策訊號燈來預測股市，
這也不對，
因燈號裡的變數之一即包含股價，
用自己來預測自己，無意義。

Institutional investors often use economic monitoring indicators to predict the stock market. However, this approach is flawed as one of the variables in the indicator includes the stock price itself. There is no value in using a variable to predict itself.

燈號包括M1b、直接及間接金融、股價指數、工業生產指數、非農業就業人數、海關出口值、機電設備進口值、製造業銷售值、批發零售及餐飲業營業額指數等 9 項。

The indicator comprises nine variables, namely: M1b, direct and indirect finance, stock price index, industrial production index, non-agricultural employment, customs export value, import value of mechanical and electrical equipment, manufacturing sales value, and wholesale and retail and catering industry turnover index.


mikeon 發表於 2012-1-28 19:12

李建德君說股價在燈號裡的變數才占1/9而已
即便包含自己，影響沒那麼大
這顯然是連最基本的數學都沒學好

Jiende Li claimed that the stock price variable only accounts for 1/9 of the signal variables in the economic monitoring indicator. Therefore, even if it includes itself, its impact is minimal. However, his statement suggests a lack of understanding of basic mathematics.

單單看迴歸公式 y = bx + a
等式兩邊分別設成 y 跟 x ，
表示兩邊為不同變數，
這是小學生即懂的道理。

Simply examining the regression model y = bx + a, it is evident that both sides of the equation represent different variables. This is a basic fact that elementary school students can comprehend.

Suppose there is a variable x that is constant 10, x = 10

stock price    x
 5.8             10
 6.1             10
 6.5             10
 7.4             10

Correlation coefficient between stock price and x = 0

現在拿股價和 x 來組成一個燈號
燈 = 股價 + x

Now take stock price and x to form a light signal
Light = stock price + x

stock price   light(= stock price + x)
 5.8                     15.8
 6.1                     16.1
 6.5                     16.5
 7.4                     17.4

Correlation coefficient between stock price and x = 1
Stock price only accounts for 1/2 of light signal variables, but correlation coefficient depends entirely on it.


weyzhiro 發表於 2012-1-29 01:54

很好理解，不愧是麥可大，
講得很簡單就懂了 ! !
簡單是最高級的複雜阿 ! ! !

Michael, great job! Your explanation is easy to understand. Indeed, simplicity is the ultimate sophistication!


mikeon 發表於 2012-1-31 01:28

相關係數是指線性相關，x 跟 y 構成一條斜線

The correlation coefficient refers to the linear correlation between x and y, which is represented by a diagonal line.

若 x 跟 y 構成底下3種狀況相關係數為0
1. 橫線或垂直線
2. 散成一團
3. 弧線或曲線

If x and y exhibit any of the following three conditions, the correlation coefficient is 0:
The data points form horizontal or vertical lines.
The data points are scattered around with no discernible pattern.
The data points form an arc or curve.

y = x 能畫出一條斜線，
y = 100x 和 y = 0.01x 也能畫出一條斜線，相關係數都是1。
相關係數跟變數的數字或權數的大小無關。

The equation y = x represents a diagonal line in a scatter plot. Similarly, y = 100x and y = 0.01x also result in diagonal lines, and the correlation coefficient for both lines is 1. The correlation coefficient is independent of the scale and weightings of the variables.


mikeon 發表於 2012-2-1 18:53

奇怪的是，那些跟我辯論景氣對策訊號燈很有用的人，
怎麼從來不曾看過他們在追蹤或討論過這些指標。
為何不追蹤 ? 因跟股價的關係度不高。
平常沒在看的東西把它們綁在一起，怎麼突然變重要了呢 ?
無非跟股價指數合在一起的結果，
問題是這樣有意義嗎 ?

What's strange is that the people who argued with me about the usefulness of economic monitoring indicators never seem to track or discuss the individual variables that make up the indicator. The reason being that these variables do not have a strong correlation with stock prices. So why suddenly consider these variables important? It is only because they are combined with the stock index. But does this make sense?


mikeon 發表於 2012-2-2 08:04

Onion桑把 x 變數設成跟股價方向相反的例子來反駁，
說景氣燈號不受股價影響那麼大，
這才是錯誤的類比。

Reader Onion attempted to refute the argument by setting the x variable in the opposite direction to the stock price, and concluding that the economic monitoring indicator is not affected by stock prices. However, this is an inaccurate metaphor.

股價跟這 8 項變數不是負相關，而是相關係數不高，所以才不見有人在觀察它們。
平常沒在看的東西把它們綁在一起，
怎麼突然就變重要了呢 ?
因為跟股價合在一起的結果。

The stock prices and other eight variables are not negatively correlated, but their correlation coefficient is not strong enough to attract attention. Hence, these variables are not tracked closely by people. However, when combined with the stock index, these variables suddenly become important. But in reality, their significance is solely due to their association with the stock index.


Onion2012年2月2日 上午6:25

洪先生您好
感謝您針對我的疑問于以賜教，尤其我只是您的著作之一般讀者，並非是貴班的學生.

Hello Mr. On,
Thank you for your guidance on my question. Especially since I am just a general reader of your works, and not a student in your class.

我現在終於了解您的觀點了，就是：
直接及間接金融、工業生產指數,製造業銷售值...等等，它們個個都與大盤指數沒有很強的相關性；如果把它們共同組織成某個指標I，這個I當然與股市也沒有很深的連動性。此時如果把大盤指數再加進它們當中又組成一個新的指標J之後，卻忽然發現這個J與股市相關性很強，那麼我們就可以反推：必然是大盤指數在主導這一新的指標。所以想用這個指標J來預測大盤是沒有意義的。

Now I finally understand your point of view, which is that direct and indirect finance, industrial production index, manufacturing sales value, etc., each of them do not have a strong correlation with the stock market index. If these variables are combined to form a certain indicator I, this I naturally does not have a deep connection with the stock market either. However, if the stock market index is added to these variables to form a new indicator J, suddenly it is found that this J has a strong correlation with the stock market. Therefore, we can deduce that the stock market index is leading this new indicator. Therefore, it is meaningless to use this indicator J to predict the stock market.

如果我以上的領會是正確的，那麼我現在也完全贊同您的觀點，以後也不會再去注意這個景氣燈號了。事實上我還是相當認同您的GDP理論，也準備使用它來規避系統性風險。先前有論者以為GDP理論也有失準的時候而加以批評，我卻主張只要在大多數情況下它都可以準確，就很有價值。

If my understanding above is correct, then I fully agree with your point of view now. In fact, I also quite agree with your GDP theory, and am prepared to use it to avoid systematic risks. Some people have criticized the GDP theory for its occasional deviation, but I think that as long as it is accurate in most cases, it is still very valuable.

最後再次向您致謝，先前對您的觀點所提出的質疑若有冒犯之處，敬請原諒。
即頌時祉
Onion

Finally, I want to thank you again. If there was any offense in my previous questioning of your views, please forgive me.
Best regards,
Onion

mikeon88發表於 2021-9-3 13:00

有人說美國可以藉由貶值來減輕負債，因為美元是儲備貨幣，
這是流行甚廣的說法，其實不然！

Some people believe that the U.S. can reduce its debt by devaluing the U.S. dollar since it is a reserve currency. However, this is a popular misconception and is not true.

國家和公司的資產負債表記載原則一致，以本國貨幣為基準，
AAPL的財報以美元為計價單位，台積電為台幣。

The balance sheets of both countries and companies are recorded based on the principle of their own currency. For example, AAPL's financial reports are denominated in U.S. dollars, while TSMC's are denominated in Taiwanese dollars.

AAPL借1億美元，美金無論升貶負債都是1億美元，
美金升貶無助於解決它的負債。

AAPL borrowed 100 million U.S. dollars, and regardless of whether the U.S. dollar rises or falls, the debt remains 100 million U.S. dollars. The fluctuation of the dollar exchange rate will not affect the company's debt.

若AAPL借外債，30億元台幣，
在美元兌台幣1:30時，負債記為1億美元。
若美元貶到1:15時，負債增至2億美元， 越貶值負債越高。
只有美元升值才會讓負債減少。

If AAPL borrows foreign debt of 3 billion Taiwan dollars,
and the exchange rate is 1:30 USD/TWD, the liability will be recorded as USD 100 million.
If the dollar depreciates to 1:15, the debt will increase to $200 million,
and the greater the depreciation, the higher the debt.
Only a stronger dollar will reduce the debt.

有人說政府可以印鈔票來償還負債，
鈔票、股票、債券其實都是一張借據，跟人民借錢
印鈔＝央行負債增加
印鈔無法降低政府負債

Some individuals believe that the government can print money to pay off its debts. However, banknotes, stocks, and bonds are essentially IOUs that represent borrowed funds from the public. Money printing results in an increase in central bank liabilities and, thus, cannot effectively reduce government debt.

此外，財報記載不管通貨膨脹，30年前和今年負債1億元，
加計通膨的實質購買力差很多，
但記載上都是1億元，並不會追溯調整。

Furthermore, financial statements do not account for inflation. If inflation is taken into consideration, the actual purchasing power of a $100 million debt 30 years ago and today is significantly different. However, it will still be recorded as $100 million without retroactive adjustment.

所以美元貶值不會減輕美國的負債，
反而會造成債信被調低，
企業借債利率高升，股債匯市大跌。

Depreciation of the U.S. dollar will not reduce U.S. debt; on the contrary, it may lead to a credit rating downgrade and higher borrowing costs for corporations, causing stock and bond markets to decline in the foreign exchange markets.

有人說美元是國際通用貨幣，可以無限印鈔不會破產，
這顯然是錯誤的。
通膨就是貨幣失去價值，
美國正為通膨所苦，
證明美鈔印太多，美國也會破產。

Some individuals claim that the U.S. dollar, being a global currency, can print unlimited money without facing bankruptcy. However, this is an erroneous belief. Inflation occurs when a currency depreciates in value, and the U.S. is currently experiencing inflation. If too much U.S. currency is printed, it could lead to hyperinflation, resulting in the devaluation of the dollar, and ultimately, the U.S. could go bankrupt.

講稿 17/21 不要想太多
Lecture 17/21 It's not that deep 

投資就這樣而已，2個重點：
1. 挑高ROE的公司，便宜買，一路抱到貴了才賣
2. 依GDP按表操課加減碼

Investment is just that simple, with two key points:
1. Choose companies with high ROE, buy them when they are cheap, and hold them until they become expensive before selling.
2. Adjust your position according to GDP movements.

其它不要想太多，投資做不好多半因爲想太多，
這是巴菲特神功最難學成的一段！

Don't overthink things. If you struggle with investing, it may be because you're overanalyzing. This is the most challenging aspect of Buffett's skillset!

一般人常犯了不自覺的毛病，若我未指出必未察覺，
看長做短，
號稱要來學巴菲特卻每天盯著短線指標殺過來殺過去。
股票要做長做短皆可，但切勿混為一談，
犯了看長做短的錯誤，股票會抱不住。

Many investors unknowingly make mistakes that they're not aware of, and if I don't bring them to attention, they may not even notice. They tend to focus on short-term gains while claiming to learn from Buffett, constantly trading based on short-term indicators. Stocks can be held for the short or long term, but it's important not to confuse the two. If you make the mistake of treating short-term investments as long-term ones, you may not be able to hold onto the stock for very long.

我中碳8年賺6倍，8年之中，
經歷過多次的營收，甚至獲利衰退。
若每個月追蹤營收，將抱不了8年賺不了6倍。

I earned six times my initial investment in China Steel Chemical over the course of eight years. During that time, I experienced fluctuations in sales and even periods of declining profits. However, if I had focused solely on tracking its monthly sales, I may not have been able to achieve that six-fold return over eight years.

台股比較特殊，規定上市櫃公司每月要公布營收，
所以大家都緊盯著營收看。
我問強調要看營收的同學
「營收要怎麼追蹤，成長的好或衰退？」
同學答「廢話！當然成長的好。」
「可是我買股票多半買在衰退。」我冷回，
同學愣了一下，以為我連營收都不會追蹤才說出買在衰退，
還教我怎麼追蹤「要等到營收動能出來，
累計營收連續3個月正成長時才可以買進。」
「是嗎？」我秀這張圖給他看
「台橡股價低點離何者比較近？」
絕對不是累計營收3個月正成長！
等到累計營收連續3個月正成長，股價早就漲翻天了。

In Taiwan, listed companies are required to disclose their monthly sales, making it a crucial factor for investors. I once asked a student who believed that monthly sales should be monitored closely, "How do you track sales, and which is better, growth or decline?" The student replied, "Of course, growth is better." However, I coldly pointed out that I had bought stocks mainly because sales had fallen. The student was momentarily stunned, thinking I didn't even know how to track sales by buying the dip.
He proceeded to teach me how to track sales, saying that I should only buy when there has been a strong growth in cumulative sales for three consecutive months. I then showed him a picture and asked, "Which is closer to the stock price low of Taiwan Synthetic Rubber (2103.TW)?" It certainly wasn't a three-month cumulative sales growth, as the stock price had risen during that period.

我跟那位教我看營收的年輕人說
「我1991年當分析師的第一天就知道看營收，
我在追蹤營收時你還在地上爬咧。」
我們這把年紀的人老愛拿歲數出來壓人。

When the young man who tried to teach me how to track sales, I told him, "I've been monitoring sales since my first day as an analyst in 1991. You were just a baby crawling on the ground back then." As someone who's been in the industry for a long time, I tend to count the number of years of experience I have.

我買CALM時公司獲利很好，ROE45%，
不久蛋價大跌，公司出現虧損，
連續4季營收、毛利率和季報都很難看，
跌到36元股價最低時有同學叫我賣，
我絲毫不為所動，因它產業地位沒變，
它是美國最大雞蛋商，市占率23%。
後來因為缺蛋股價大漲。

When I purchased shares in Cal-Maine Foods (CALM), the company was making considerable profits with an ROE of 45%. However, the price of eggs rapidly declined, causing the company to suffer losses. For four consecutive quarters, sales, gross margins, and quarterly reports were very poor. When the stock price hit a low of $36, a student suggested that I sell my shares. However, I decided to hold on to them because the company's position in the industry had not changed. It is the largest egg producer in the United States, with a market share of 23%. Its stock price later surged due to an egg shortage.

追蹤營收、 毛利率、季報看不了太遠，
檢定公司有沒有變才是重點。

While tracking revenue, gross profit margin, and quarterly reports are important, they may not provide a long-term perspective. t is more important to focus on the endurance of the company.

投資千萬不要想太多，否則會買不下去，
因底部都是利空充斥。

Don't overthink, or you'll end up hesitating. The market bottom is often accompanied by bad news.

2008年我在40元時買台化，當時金融風暴方殷，
營收衰退，單季出現虧損，
還傳出中東產油國煉油廠產能開出來，
成本比台塑集團低，
....利空一堆，烏雲罩頂，
後來股價漲到120元。

In 2008, I purchased shares of Formosa Chemicals & Fibre at NT$40 per share. During that time, the severe financial crisis caused a decline in sales and the company suffered losses for a quarter. Additionally, reports showed that new refineries had started production in Middle Eastern oil-producing countries, resulting in lower costs than Formosa Plastics Group. Despite these negative factors, the stock price eventually rose to NT$120.

2012年底我47.5美元買AZN，英國心臟病藥廠，
買了才發現它面臨專利懸崖，
多數藥品專利權在未來幾年即將到期。
看國外研究報告建議都是「賣出、賣出、賣出」，
可是已經買了，只好硬著頭皮抱下去。
漲到70幾美元傳出輝瑞藥廠有意收購，
第一次出價它拒絕，二次調高價格又不要，
可是我要，就賣掉，剛好賣在最高價。

In late 2012, I purchased shares of the British pharmaceutical company AstraZeneca (AZN) for $47.5. Soon after buying, I discovered that the company was facing a patent cliff with many of its pharmaceutical patents expiring in the coming years. Despite foreign research reports advising to sell, I decided to hold onto my investment. Eventually, the stock price increased to over $70 and there were rumors of Pfizer planning to acquire AZN. Following AZN’s rejection of Pfizer’s first bid, Pfizer countered with a higher bid; however, AZN still turned it down. Contrary to AZN’s opinion, I liked the stock price level at the time, so I sold and it just happened that I sold at the peak.

這幾年上課我都會按中國的銀行股給大家看，
前5大銀行通通跌破淨值，
工商、建設、農業、中行、交通，ROE都接近20%，
預期報酬率25%以上。
看到的人無不大讚甜美多汁，可是都不敢買，質疑呆帳太多。
大家不敢買，我就跳進去買中國銀行買在10多美元，
2015年大漲到17美元。

In the past few years, I have presented Chinese bank shares to my class. The top 5 banks have all fallen below their net assets. The ROE of Industrial and Commercial Bank, Construction Bank, Agricultural Bank, Bank of China, and Transportation Bank is close to 20% with an expected return of more than 25%. Everyone praised the juicy price, but they hesitated and questioned too much bad debt. I took the leap and bought Bank of China for more than $10. In 2015, it rose to $17.

確定是好公司，股價便宜就買，不要再想太多了，
買了最好忘了它的存在，不用照顧，不必停損，
多種果樹比較重要。

If it is a good company and the stock price is cheap, just buy it without thinking too much. After purchasing, it's better to forget about it, no need to take care of it, no need to stop losses. Diversification is more important.

我這番言論驚呆眾人，
非危言聳聽，有學理根據的。

My words shocked everyone.
This is not an exaggeration, but makes sense.

每次舊生來回鍋，都會關心他們股票做得如何？
幾乎百分之百無意外的，
績效好的都是一路抱，
不好的則跑來跑去。

Whenever my former students come back, I always inquire about their investment outcomes. Almost without exception, long-term investors have positive results, while poor performance is often attributed to speculators.

既然同學喜歡跑來跑去，我建議就不要跑了，
買了股票不用照顧，
這絕非在嘩眾取寵，實有所本。

Since many students prefer speculative trading, I recommend they stop trading and focus on long-term investments. By doing so, they don't have to constantly monitor their holdings. This advice is not meant to be sensational, but it is based on solid principles.

大家都知道我的賣股三原則：
1. 貴了
2. 壞了
3. 找到更好的。

Everyone knows my three principles for selling shares:
1. Expensive
2. Has gone bad
3. Find a better option

1. 貴了 和 3. 找到更好，大家都同意，
問題出在 2. 壞了，
發現公司變壞了要賣股多半來不及，股價早跌翻。
我買GNC，原來也覺得不錯，
推薦的同學說現代人注重養生會買一些補給藥品，
後來股價跌了原以為只是獲利衰退，
跌了9成才知負債不能展延，大誌大條。
同學問我要不要賣？
跌了9成，即便一天大跌20%對績效影響已不關痛癢，
股票跌多了有個好處，下跌空間就越有限。

Everyone agrees on the first and third principles of selling shares: 1. If it's expensive and 3. If a better option is available.
The second principle, "has gone bad," is often disputed as it's difficult to determine when a company has gone bad until it's too late and the stock price has already fallen significantly.
For example, I once purchased shares of GNC which initially performed well due to a student's recommendation that health supplements were in high demand. However, the stock price later declined, and I initially assumed it was only a decline in profits. It wasn't until the stock had fallen by 90% that I realized the company was unable to extend its debt and had gone bankrupt. When some students asked if I wanted to sell, I explained that the stock had already fallen by 90%, so even if it fell another 20% every day, it wouldn't significantly impact my overall performance. One advantage of stocks falling drastically is that the downside is limited.

照顧股票在照顧什麼？怕它變壞。
變壞了又通常來不及賣，
所以呢？就不要照顧啦。

What does taking care of stocks mean? It's being afraid that they will turn bad. When they do turn bad, it's usually too late to sell. So, what should you do? Just don't take care of them.

把賣股三原則的 2. 壞了 拿掉，
不就變成股票買了之後，不必停損，不必照顧，
一路抱到貴了才賣。

Remove the second principle of "2. Has gone bad" and it turns out you don't have to cut your losses or take care of it after purchasing. Hold onto it until the price becomes expensive.

我也實際去執行給大家看，
我的美股踩到很多地雷股，都未設停損，
VALE和GNC都曾跌了90%，
BBBY和VIAB跌60%，
HLF和TSCDY跌50%，...
可是總績效仍不錯，因多種果樹。

I proved this principle through my portfolio, which included some landmine stocks that I did not cut losses on. For example, VALE and GNC dropped by 90%, BBBY and VIAB fell 60%, and HLF and TSCDY fell 50%. However, due to diversification, the overall performance was still good.

投資跟農夫播種一樣，一把稻苗灑出去，
不期待每棵稻苗都長大，
只要7成能結穗即可豐收。

Investing is comparable to a farmer sowing seeds. Just like how a farmer scatters a handful of rice seeds, investors don't anticipate every single investment to yield returns. Instead, they aim for around 70% of their investments to mature and produce a bountiful harvest.

投資沒辦法百分百都對，
只要對個7成即會大賺，
講稿12/21提及買錯股機率約30%，
顛倒來看選對股的勝算為7成，
只要多種果樹，持續抱下去，當然會大賺！

Investing can't be 100% accurate, but getting it right 70% of the time can lead to substantial profits. In the speech on 12/21, it was mentioned that the probability of picking the wrong stock is about 30%, which means there's a 70% chance of picking the right one. By diversifying your investments and holding onto them consistently, you will certainly achieve significant gains !

講稿 18/21 玩融資期貨選擇權是悲劇的開始
Lecture 18/21 Margin trading, futures and options are the beginnings of a tragedy

投資不要做融資，否則保證3-5年破產，
尤其要向年輕人呼籲千萬別融資，
年輕人血氣方剛，都愛融資殺過來殺過去才過癮。
同學問「破產還有保證的？」
是的！我來證明。
「破產還可證明？」同學紛紛投射出景仰的眼光。

Do not invest in financing, otherwise you will be guaranteed bankruptcy within 3-5 years. I especially urge young people not to engage in financing. Young people are full of vitality and they all enjoy financing to satisfy their urge for excitement. A student asked, "Are you sure about the guarantee of bankruptcy?" Yes! I will prove it. "Can bankruptcy be proven?" The students looked at me with admiration.

台股融資現在是6成，10元的股票只要出4元，券商借6元。
融資維持率是167%(=10/6)，
維持率掉到130%(=7.8/6)會被追繳，
亦即股價從10元跌到7.8元，跌22%。

Currently, the financing rate for Taiwan stocks is 60%, which means that for a stock priced at NT$10, investors only need to pay NT$4, while the brokerage firm lends them NT$6. The financing maintenance rate in this case is 167% (= 10/6). However, if the maintenance rate falls to 130% (= 7.8/6), a margin call will be triggered. This means that if the stock price drops from NT$10 to NT$7.8, a decline of 22%, investors will face a margin call.

第一次被追繳時還不會有事，
100萬元進去只賠了55萬元，一半多一點，
(100萬元融資，可買到股票250萬元(=100x10/4)，
跌22%等於賠了55萬元(=250x22%))，
從有錢階級變成中產階級，
本來吃200元便當，改成吃超商60元國民便當，
有些舊生中午200元便當不吃大概是這個原因。

You may be able to handle the first margin call if you have financed NT$1 million and only suffered a loss of NT$550,000, which is only half of your principal. With financing of NT$1 million, you can purchase stocks worth NT$2.5 million (= 100 x 10 / 4). A 22% drop in stock prices would result in a loss of NT$550,000 (= 250 x 22%). This means that you may go from being wealthy to being in the middle class. You may have been able to afford a NT$200 lunch box in the past, but now you can only afford a NT$60 lunch box from a supermarket. This may be why some former students do not bring expensive lunch boxes to class.

融資被斷頭一定心有不甘，會去借錢來補繳，
需借55萬元來補到滿。
當第二次又被斷頭就破產了還負債累累，
股價跌39%(=(1-22%)x(1-22%)-1)就二次追繳。

If you are forced to liquidate, you may be unwilling to give up and decide to borrow money to repay your debt. Let's say you need to borrow NT$550,000. However, if you are margin-called for a second time, you will be declared bankrupt and burdened with heavy debt. A second margin call will occur if the stock price drops by 39% (=(1-22%) x (1-22%)-1).

現在跌停板是10%，
跌2支停板第一次斷頭，財產腰斬。
跌4支停板即破產了還負債累累。

The current upper and lower limits for stock prices are set at 10%. If the stock price falls below the lower limit twice, a margin call will be triggered, and your wealth will be reduced by half. If the stock price falls below the lower limit by four times, you will be declared bankrupt and burdened with heavy debt.

股市或類股多久出現大盤或類股跌4成的機率：
2020年武漢肺炎
2015年QE泡沫
2008年次貸
2003年SARS
2001電子泡沫
1997亞洲風暴
大概每3-5年發生一次，符合景氣循環。

What is the likelihood of the stock market or a particular industry experiencing a 40% decline?
Several significant events have resulted in such declines in the past:
The 2020 Wuhan Pneumonia outbreak
The 2015 QE bubble
The 2008 subprime mortgage crisis
The 2013 SARS outbreak
The 2001 Electronics Bubble
The 1997 Asian financial crisis.
Historically, a decline of 40% in the stock market or a particular industry has occurred approximately every 3-5 years, coinciding with the business cycle.

2015年QE泡沫破裂，金磚四國和原料股跌得比1929年還慘。
俄國石油股本益比跌到1.4倍。
看葛拉漢的書，他是1929年代的人，
書中個股本益比也才4倍，
2015年金磚和原料股跌得比1929年還慘。

During the QE bubble burst in 2015, BRIC countries and raw material stocks experienced a decline that was even more severe than the one that occurred during the 1929 stock market crash. Russian oil stocks, for example, fell to a PER of only 1.4. This is in contrast to Graham's book, which described the 1929 crash and featured a PER of only 4. In 2015, the PER of BRIC countries and raw material stocks dropped even lower than the levels seen in 1929.

再講一個真實故事，發生在巴菲特班同學身上的
家庭倫理大悲劇。
2010年同學打電話來道謝，他加入巴班賺了很多錢，
去刷銀行存摺不敢相信戶頭裡有這麼多錢。
電話上我們在談天，聊著聊著突然提到
他前一年剛退休的老爸，
2009年退休之後就跟狐群狗黨鬼混。
他老爸的朋友跟他老爸講「現在股票很好賺，
「隨便當沖一下每月都可以撈個3-4萬元貼補家用。」
2009年指數從4,000漲到8,000那年，
當時國民黨又在宣傳簽了ECFA之後股市會3萬點，
之前還說三通股市會上萬點。
他老爸大為心動，
就在當時8,000多點時把他們家的房子拿去抵押
而且融資來做股票，效果加倍！

I'll tell you a true story about a student in my Buffett Class, and the tragedy that struck his family. In 2010, the student called to thank me. He had joined my class and made a lot of money, but when he checked his bank account, he couldn't believe how much money he had accumulated. As we chatted on the phone, he suddenly mentioned his father's retirement the previous year. His father had been spending his days idly with friends until one of them suggested day trading in stocks, claiming that it was very profitable and could earn him NT$30,000-40,000 a month. The stock market index had risen from 4,000 in 2009 to 8,000, and the Kuomintang party had been advocating that the market would reach 30,000 points after signing the ECFA. They had also said that the three-links with China would raise the index to 10,000 points. His father was convinced and, when the index exceeded 8,000, he even mortgaged the house to double his investment.

他老爸喜歡單押一支，想押對了也漲6倍就發了。
他跟老爸說「這樣會不會太危險？」
他老爸涉「市」未深「沒關係，融資只要善設停損就沒事！
我們股價跌5%就停損。」
他老爸第一支買亞泥，ECFA概念股，股價跌了5%停損。
第二支買南亞，老爸買的價格都是股價打了一個堅實底部，
第一根長紅、攻擊量出現即跳進去買，標準的技術分析，
結果又跌了5%，很果決的停損。
第三支買友達35元，後來跌破8元。

His father had a tendency to invest all of his money into a single stock, hoping to get rich quickly, just like I did when I made six times the profit in China Steel Chemical. The student expressed concern and asked if it was too risky. However, his father was new to investing and replied, "It doesn't matter, as long as we cut our losses. If the stock price falls by 5%, we cut our losses." His father's first investment was in Asian Cement (1102.TW), an ECFA play, but the stock price fell by 5% and he cut his losses. For his second investment, he bought Nan Ya Plastics (1303.TW) at the stock price's bottom. Following technical analysis, he thought that as trading volume increased, the first red long candlestick indicated that the stock price may rise, so he jumped in. Unfortunately, the stock price fell by another 5%, and he again cut his losses decisively. For his third investment, he purchased AU Optronics (2409.TW) at NT$35, but later, the stock price fell below NT$8.

同學說「老爸愛玩股票勸也勸不聽。」
他想「就讓他去吧！只要他們兩人的錢各自管理，就相安無事。」
我聽到這裡越覺不對勁「你知道令尊大人賠掉多少錢了嗎？
股價跌5%，融資賠幾%？」

The student said, "My father enjoys trading stocks, but I can't talk him out of it."
He thought for a moment and replied, "As long as we manage our money separately, we can coexist peacefully."
But after hearing this, I realized that something was amiss. "Do you know how much money your father lost when he cut his losses at a 5% drop in stock price while using margin trading?"

融資是出4元可買到10元股票，
股價跌5%，融資賠了12.5%(=5%x10/4)。
老爸連錯3次已經賠了37%，
說到此一時心急我大聲嚷著
「你家客廳已經是別人的！」

The margin loan allowed buying a NT$10 stock with only NT$4. When the stock price fell by 5%, the financing loss was 12.5% (= 5% x 10 / 4). After his father made three wrong decisions, he had already lost 37%. When I heard this, I became anxious and shouted, "Your living room already belongs to someone else!"

同學愣了一秒，聲音一沉說
「要掛電話了，要跟老爸談判去了。」
半年不到，同學說「人家已經來看我們家的房子了！」
後來怎樣？他老爸還和老媽離婚，
他老媽看老爸玩融資不成樣，每天吵架，
老夫老妻因融資玩股票離婚收場。家破妻離，
子不曉得有沒有散？

The student was taken aback and his voice became somber. "I need to hang up and talk to my father."

In less than six months, the student said, "People are coming to look at my house!" What happened? His parents got divorced. His mother realized that his father was not good at margin trading, and they argued every day. The couple eventually divorced due to the losses incurred from margin trading. They lost their home and his mother left. I wonder if the student also left with him.

千萬不要玩融資，
玩融資、期貨、選擇權是悲劇的開始！

It is advisable to avoid margin trading, futures, or options as they can lead to tragedy.

建議同學把這句話當作家訓，
因為許多同學祖孫三代來上我的課，
他們的家庭日活動就是全家圍在一起按盈再表。
未來您的子弟一定很會做股票，
覺得自己無敵，就開始大玩融資、期貨、選擇權，
那將是悲劇的開始，
所以務必告誡小孩不要碰這些東西。

I suggest making this sentence a motto for your family. Many of my students bring their grandparents and grandchildren to my class, and their family activity is to gather around On's table. In the future, your children may become skilled investors in stocks. However, if they believe they are invincible and start dabbling in margin trading, futures, and options, it could be the beginning of a tragic story. Therefore, please make sure to caution your children against getting involved in these risky activities.

社會新聞，只要投資失利燒炭自殺，
一定都是玩融資、期貨、選擇權。
搞到燒炭自殺必定是負債累累還不起，
投資會負債累累一定玩融資、期貨、選擇權。
現股買進不可能燒炭自殺，
即便全踩到地雷也僅財產歸零而已，
再找個工作，下個月發薪水時就站起來。

Whenever there is news of an investor committing suicide, it is often associated with margin trading, futures, and options. These high-risk investments can lead to heavy debts and ultimately tragedy. Without financing, investment failures are unlikely to result in suicide. Even if all your stocks turn out to be a complete loss, your wealth may return to zero but it won't lead to heavy debts. In such cases, finding a job can help you restart and recover on your next payday.

融資者一開始都信誓旦旦，
一定會等等等到最低點再全押！
問題是誰知道哪裡最低？
2008年9,800賣掉夠高竿了吧，
等到6,000很低了吧，
融資買進跌到4,000一樣斷頭。

Margin traders often claim that they will wait until the stock price hits its lowest point before going all-in. However, the problem is that no one can accurately predict the exact bottom of a stock's price. For example, in 2008, you sold your stock for 9,800 and then repurchased it for 6,000, demonstrating your skill and patience in trading. However, even if the stock price later dropped to 4,000, you would still be at risk of a margin call.

如果上述故事還不夠恐怖，再補充一個，
台中同學告訴我的故事。
同學朋友的大舅子，
(奇怪！這種事情都發生在朋友身上)，
電子公司經理，一開始有一桶金，
現股買來買去，覺得不過癮，
融資殺來殺去，很快被斷頭，不敢讓家人知道，
老婆看到追繳令寄來才知，
和娘家籌了一筆錢把股票贖回來，
剩下一點錢。營業員跟他說去玩選擇權，
因為可以小搏大！
他真的去給它以小搏大，
更快的就賠光了還負債累累。

If the previous story wasn't scary enough, let me share another one with you.
This story was told by a student of mine from Taichung. It's about the brother-in-law of one of his friends.
(Strange! This kind of thing only happens to friends, right?)
This person was a manager of an electronics company and had a lot of money to begin with. However, he wasn't satisfied with just buying stocks with his own money. He started margin trading and was quickly margin-called, but he was too afraid to let his family know about it.
His wife only found out when she saw the margin call notice. She raised some money with the help of her family to try and redeem the stocks.
After paying off most of the debts, they had a little bit of money left. The broker suggested that he try playing options, as it could yield big wins with small bets.
He went in and lost everything, ending up in heavy debt.

這下子還不起了，大舅子一個人開車到大肚山燒炭自殺。
這位仁兄一輩子做人失敗到底，
融資失敗，
玩選擇權失敗，
連燒炭自殺都失敗，
被救回來成了植物人。
最倒楣的是他的老婆！

The brother-in-law was unable to repay his debts and drove alone to Dadu Mountain to commit suicide by burning charcoal.
This man experienced a series of failures in his life - margin trading, playing options, and even suicide.
However, his suicide attempt was unsuccessful and he was rescued, but he was left in a vegetative state.
The most unfortunate person in this situation is his wife.

我對於哪個單位大打廣告宣傳玩選擇權
非常不以為然，
捷運忠孝復興站長長電扶梯由上到下貼滿廣告，
叫人去以小搏大。
期貨選擇權原是給人避險的工具，
那個單位竟然慫恿散戶鋌而走險，真是無知。

咦！教室寂靜無聲，氣氛變得十分凝重。

I strongly oppose the authorities' active promotion of futures and options trading among investors. The escalators at Zhongsiao Fusing Station of MRT are plastered with advertisements enticing investors to make small bets and reap big rewards. However, futures and options are intended for hedging, not for gambling. The authorities are misguided in encouraging retail investors to take risks.

The classroom fell silent and the atmosphere turned solemn.

上述所談的都是融資斷頭悲劇，
有聰明人就去借不會被斷頭的
公教信用貸款和房子抵押
認為只要自身薪水夠高，
或股票殖利率足以償還貸款利息
即可以借錢投資，
這是嚴重錯誤的想法。

The aforementioned issues revolve around the tragic outcomes of margin calls. Certain individuals, deeming themselves smart, choose safer alternatives like public service credit loans and mortgage loans to steer clear of the repercussions of margin calls. They hold the belief that as long as their salary is substantial or the dividend yield from stocks can offset the loan interest, borrowing money for investment is secure. Nonetheless, this notion is severely flawed.

不可以借錢投資的原因
從來不是貸款利率或現金流的問題，
而是股價常常會大跌。
自有資金500萬元，借錢500萬元，
全部買滿股票之後遇到2020年3月股災跌了40%，
即賠了8成 ，馬上從天堂掉到地獄。

不管借什麼錢，融資、公教信貸、房子抵押
都是賠掉8成，沒啥區別

The reasons for not being able to borrow money for investment
are never about loan interest rates or cash flow issues,
but rather the frequent significant drops in stock prices.
With personal funds of NT$5 million and borrowing another 5 million,
fully investing in stocks and encountering a 40% drop during the March 2020 stock market crash,
results in an 80% loss, plummeting from heaven to hell instantly.

Regardless of the source of the borrowed money—whether it's financing, public service loans, or mortgage on a house—
the outcome remains the same: an 80% loss, with little difference.

關鍵在於波動大小，
銀行願意借7成房貸因為房價通常不太會暴跌。
不管是個人和公司，
凡是波動大的項目即不可借錢投入，
產品價格波動大、現金流不穩定，或資本密集
應該用自有資金因應。

The key lies in the degree of volatility. The bank is willing to lend up to 70% of the mortgage because house prices typically do not undergo significant declines. Whether for individuals or companies, it's not advisable to invest borrowed money in highly volatile matters. Products with significant price fluctuations, unstable cash flows, or requiring substantial capital should be managed using one's own funds.

台積電負債比低僅40%，因為晶圓代工產品價格波動大、
景氣循環明顯，以及資本密集。
鴻海負債比高些60%，因為蘋果的訂單穩定

The debt ratio of TSMC is low at only 40% due to the high volatility of wafer foundry product prices, significant economic cycles, and intensive capex requirements. On the other hand, Hon Hai can afford to have a 60% debt ratio because of the stability of Apple's orders.

波克夏負債比53%，
它是一家保險公司，
同時也是控股公司，
在投資上巴菲特很排斥借錢

Berkshire Hathaway maintains a debt ratio of 53%. It is both an insurance and a holding company. Buffett strongly discourages borrowing for investments.

政府對銀行和保險公司投入股市有極其嚴格規定，
因為其負債比高達9成，
若全部投入股票，跌10%就倒閉。
金融業的大部份資產必須買價格穩定的公債、投資等級債等，
即所謂的資本適足率。
美國金融機構可投資股票比例很低，
銀行不超過淨值25%，保險公司為30%，
若負債比90%，銀行投資股市不超過資產之2.5%，保險公司3%。

The government imposes stringent regulations on banks and insurance companies regarding their investments in the stock market, particularly due to their high debt ratios, which can reach up to 90%. If these institutions were to allocate all their funds to stocks, a 10% market downturn could result in bankruptcy. The majority of assets in the financial sector are required to be invested in stable securities such as government bonds and investment-grade bonds, which contribute to what is known as the capital adequacy ratio. In the United States, financial institutions are permitted only a small portion of their investments in stocks; banks may not exceed 25% of their net worth, while insurance companies may not exceed 30%. Moreover, if the debt ratio reaches 90%, banks are restricted to investing no more than 2.5% of their assets in the stock market, whereas insurance companies may invest up to 3%.

股市波動大，
我們又喜歡押身家，
公司本身也有負債，常達6成以上，
若再借錢投資等於雙重槓桿，
很容易血本無歸。

Stock market volatility is high, and we often tend to go all-in. Companies themselves frequently carry debt, with levels often exceeding 60%. Borrowing more money to invest implies utilizing double leverage, which can easily result in the loss of all our capital.

大家看到我們投資績效卓越穩定，
那是只看到結果，忘了過程。
2020年股災最慘時大盤跌4成，
我們的持股也跌4成。
過程中的煎熬是最難過的，
借錢投資的人賠掉8成，是熬不過去的。

When observing our outstanding and steady investment performance, people often overlook the process and focus solely on the outcomes. Amidst the depths of the 2020 stock market crash, when the broader market plummeted by 40%, our holdings mirrored this decline. Enduring that period was undoubtedly the toughest challenge. For those who leveraged their investments with borrowed funds, an 80% loss meant they couldn't weather the storm.

做投資永遠要想一件事情：
若今天碰到股災，能否熬得過去？

我就可以！
我現在淨值接近7千萬元台幣，
若下一小時發生股災賠掉4成，
仍有4,200萬元，日子還過得下去

When investing, there's always one key consideration:
Could I withstand a stock market crash today?

I certainly can! My current net worth is close to NT$70 million. If a crash occurs within the next hour and I lose 40%, I'd still have NT$42 million left, which is sufficient to sustain my lifestyle.

雜工發表於 2021-8-7 00:53 

我來舉我個人真實慘痛的失敗經歷分享。
在還沒回到巴班，2018年之前，我的房貸，前2年只付利息，第3年開始付本息，我卻用理財型房貸，以貸養貸。而股票多用融資，大都賠錢收場，也大概打了3～4年「全職的」股期當沖，最後是賠光錢，賠到沒錢生活和繳房貸。

Let me share a personal and painful experience of failure. Before attending Buffett's class in 2018, I had taken out a mortgage with interest-only payments for the first two years, and began repaying both principal and interest in the third year. However, I also used an investment mortgage to support loans and investments. I traded stocks through margin loans and suffered losses in most of my trades. After three to four years of trading stocks and futures full-time, I lost all my money. I even lost the money I needed to live on and pay my mortgage.

當時房地產是漲價的，想增貸或轉貸卻都四處碰壁，因為提不出還款能力證明，戶頭也無存款證明，「專職投資人」這頭銜好聽，沒有半家公民營銀行、農會或信用合作社願意讓我增貸或轉貸，連類似於裕融這種民間貸款的轉貸也都不願意，剩下地下錢莊高利貸是我絕不走的一條路。

The increase in property value made me consider increasing my loan or refinancing, but I was denied due to lack of proof of repayment ability and deposit records. Despite the title of being a "full-time investor," private banks, rural cooperatives, and credit unions were reluctant to extend my loan or offer me on-lending opportunities. Even private lending services like Yulong Finance declined my application. I refuse to resort to underground loan sharks as that is not a viable option for me.

找了銀行商量，最後因擔心房子被法拍，只能忍痛低價快速出售，2018年尾處理掉房子和負債，幸好還有一點點剩餘，自知不能再這樣下去，於是在2019年1月打電話給老師，在當頭棒喝後才覺醒回頭。這部分，我在個人的持股分享那篇，或多或少有敘述過。

After consulting with the bank, I was forced to sell my house at a lower price because I was worried about foreclosure. I finally settled the house and debts by the end of 2018, but I realized I couldn't continue down this path. In January 2019, I reached out to Michael for help, and he gave me a stern wake-up call. This is the part I shared in the article, and I talked about it in more detail.

還款期限已屆，沒錢可還，銀行當然催收啊，繼續還不出錢就被法拍賤價拍賣掉不動產啊。持股套牢賠錢，想用當沖力挽狂瀾，卻又賠更多，惡性循環下去，到某一天逼到了也不得不處理。身邊沒錢，連三餐都出問題，借錢借到親友避之唯恐不及，這時該如何處置？只剩賣掉房子和動產，看能解決多少算多少啊！

When the repayment period has expired and there is no money to repay, the bank will send a collection notice. If you still cannot repay the debt, the bank may foreclose the mortgage at a lower price.
After losing money in stocks, I tried to recover it through day trading, but I only incurred more losses. This vicious circle continued, and eventually, I was forced to confront my financial problems. I had no money and struggled to even put food on the table.
I attempted to borrow money from friends and family, but they all avoided me. What could I do at this point? I had to sell my house, properties, and all of my valuables to make ends meet.

我說過，同學們不會像我這般不幸，所以不會碰到這些真實經慘痛經歷。
8年後，2019年1月回到巴班。
2019.12.31 美股持股獲利約+11％
2020.03.22 新冠病毒最慘時帳面虧損約-40％（慘啊！）
2021.05.10 帳面績效約+32％

殷鑑不遠，戒慎恐懼！
感恩Mike桑把我拉回來啊！
慚愧！慚愧！

As I mentioned earlier, my classmates won't experience the same misery as I did, so they won't have to go through my painful experiences. After an 8-year hiatus, I returned to Buffett Class in January 2019. By the end of 2019, I had made a profit of about 11% on U.S. stocks. However, during the worst of the coronavirus pandemic on March 22, 2020, I lost 40% of my investments, which was extremely painful. On May 10, 2021, I gained 32%.

I have learned to always be cautious and remember the lessons I have learned. Thank you, Mr. Mike, for guiding me back on track. I will keep your advice in mind always.