Cwater持股分享


討論區2
投資美股8年,年績效達16%,第1個8年交出符合預期的成績單內心無比激動,感謝mikeon及巴菲特班、感謝巴菲特班每一位同學。
Cwater持股分享 CL1B8xx
我也蠻好奇,符合巴菲特原則的股票,
預期報酬率大於15%就買進,
一路買100,200,300檔...持股,抱到貴才賣
最後的成果會如何?
穩定趨向年報酬率15%?

選股就是統計學上的抽樣,
我們是世上少數懂得大數法則的投資人

巴班的實證在投資學上的地位將勝於CAPM(資本資產定價模型),
因為我們的方法更實用。
99%投資人和專家不曉得這個道理:
https://mikeon88.666forum.com/t374p50-topic#7238

買錯股所有人檢討的結論一定是加強研究,
多拜訪公司,深入挖掘財報,廣泛閱讀財經媒體,
再佐以技術分析等等。
一個殘酷的事實擺在眼前卻是
這3成買錯股機率無法大幅降低,
連投資大神也一樣,
巴菲特常常買錯股,
孟格生平最後一檔持股即栽在阿里巴巴上。

The conclusion drawn from the review of everyone who has made incorrect stock purchases is always to intensify research. This involves visiting companies more frequently, delving deeper into financial statements, extensively reading financial media, and supplementing with technical analysis, among other strategies.

A harsh reality stares us in the face: the probability of making incorrect stock purchases, at 30%, cannot be significantly reduced. Even investment gurus face the same challenge. Warren Buffett frequently makes incorrect stock purchases, and Charlie Munger's final stock investment was mistakenly placed in BABA.

3成買錯機率若集中押注在少數幾支,績效容易大好大壞,
押對了就大好,錯了即大壞,最終以大壞收場,
只要最後一次押錯就前功盡棄,注定破產。

When this 30% probability of making incorrect purchases is concentrated in a few stocks, performance can swing dramatically. Making the right choices leads to significant gains, while incorrect decisions result in substantial losses, ultimately leading to adverse outcomes. Just one misstep can undo all prior successes, potentially leading to bankruptcy.

前四年起步比較顛簸

同學仍然堅持下來

令人敬佩

累積到1千萬元的確是重要的里程碑

財務自由指日可待

恭喜!

祝身體健康


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