講稿15/21
股價由便宜到貴或貴到便宜的時間很漫長
往往長達5年甚至10幾年
中碳在2009年之後才漲上來，
之前好幾年在便宜價以下，
同學一直在問中碳怎麼都不會變貴？
2014年漲到200元又改問我怎麼都不便宜？
The transition of a stock price from cheap to expensive — or from expensive back to cheap — is often a very long process, frequently lasting 5 years or even more than a decade.
China Steel Chemical only began its major rally after 2009. Before that, the stock had traded below what many considered a cheap valuation for several years. Back then, my students kept asking me, “Why does the stock never become expensive?” Then in 2014, when it surged to NT$200, they started asking, “Why does it never become cheap again?”
可是大部分人只做波段，
不像巴菲特抱10年以上。
相較於貴淑價，
企業獲利的成長與大盤走勢
對波段漲跌的影響更為直接。
接到大訂單股價先漲一波；
財報不如預期則大跌一段。
However, most investors trade over shorter market cycles rather than holding stocks for more than ten years like Mr. Buffett.
For medium-term price movements, corporate earnings growth and the overall market trend have a more direct impact than whether a stock appears cheap or expensive. A company that lands a major order may see its share price surge in the short term, while disappointing earnings can trigger a sharp decline.
大盤的影響則是全面性的，
正所謂「覆巢之下無完卵」。
當大盤疲弱時，個股即便已經很便宜仍可能持續下跌；
反之，在大多頭市場貴了還會漲到更貴。
The broader market has a pervasive influence on individual stocks. As the saying goes, “when the nest is overturned, no egg remains intact.” When the market is weak, even stocks that appear deeply undervalued may continue to fall. Conversely, in a strong bull market, expensive stocks can become even more expensive.
雖然市場本益比、席勒本益比、
甚至是巴菲特指標 (股市總市值/GDP)
可以測量出市場貴淑，卻無法預測何時反轉。
唯有洞察反轉時機才能研判趨勢。
Although measures such as the market PE ratios, the Shiller CAPE, and even the Buffett Indicator (total stock market capitalization to GDP) can help gauge whether the market is expensive or cheap, they cannot predict when a reversal will occur. Accurately identifying the timing of a reversal is what ultimately allows investors to determine the market’s trend.
GDP年增率可以抓到大盤轉折
底下這張圖從1990年以來到現在，是相當完整的一張圖。
這個現象過去都成立就別懷疑這次會不準。
GDP year-over-year growth can reliably capture major market turning points.
The chart below, covering the period from 1990 to the present, provides a very complete long-term picture.
Since this pattern has held consistently in the past, there’s no reason to doubt its validity this time.