講稿15/21
股價由便宜到貴或貴到便宜的時間很漫長
往往長達5年甚至10幾年
中碳在2009年之後才漲上來，
之前好幾年在便宜價以下，
同學一直在問中碳怎麼都不會變貴？
2014年漲到200元又改問我怎麼都不便宜？
The transition of a stock price from cheap to expensive — or from expensive back to cheap — is often a very long process, frequently lasting 5 years or even more than a decade.
China Steel Chemical only began its major rally after 2009. Before that, the stock had traded below what many considered a cheap valuation for several years. Back then, my students kept asking me, “Why does the stock never become expensive?” Then in 2014, when it surged to NT$200, they started asking, “Why does it never become cheap again?”
可是大部分人只做波段，
不會跟巴菲特一樣抱10年以上。
波段漲跌由獲利成長和GDP決定，
接到大訂單或財報不如預期會讓股價漲一波或大跌一段。
But most investors are only trading medium-term swings rather than holding for more than 10 years like Mr. Buffett. Medium-term price movements are mainly driven by earnings growth and GDP trends. Landing a major order can trigger a strong rally, while disappointing earnings can cause a significant decline.
大盤也是決定波段走勢的主要因素，
正所謂「覆巢之下無完卵」。
當大盤疲弱時，股價便宜仍可能持續下跌；
反之，在多頭市場貴了還會漲到更貴。
單憑還很便宜就認定股價不會跌，
或以已經太貴斷言不可能再漲，
通常都不準確。
The broader market is also one of the primary factors determining medium-term stock price movements. As the saying goes, “when the nest falls, no egg remains intact.” When the overall market is weak, even cheap stocks can continue falling. Conversely, in a bull market, expensive stocks can become even more expensive. Simply assuming a stock cannot fall because it still looks cheap, or concluding it cannot rise further because it already appears expensive, is usually inaccurate.